Poverty in Egypt

Rural kids, Egypt © Jeff Black

The official prognosis is that Egypt is likely to attain all of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs); indeed the first Goal to halve the 1990 level of extreme poverty (based on the standard UN threshold of $1 per day) has already been achieved. However, a distinctly fragile profile of poverty reduction emerges from the Egypt Human Development Report (HDR) published in 2008 which observes that the benefits of the country’s modernised economy have largely bypassed the provinces of Upper Egypt and the rural regions of Lower Egypt. This widening inequality has stalled progress against the broader poverty line (the income necessary to provide both food and non-food needs) which is set at just below $1.50 per day and which now at 19.6% has shown no lasting improvement since 2000 – and only modest advance since it stood at 24.3% in the base MDG year of 1990.

The HDR locates this poverty in the informal part of the economy – households dependent on small farms or related self-employment – which miss out on rising wages and social insurance schemes. Estimating that this sector accounts for 36% of the workforce, the Report also suggests that it absorbs the strain of new labour emerging from a sharply rising population, further diluting income.

Egyptian school © Unicef

Educational access has improved; net primary school enrolment is now considered to be around 95% and Egypt’s youth literacy rate has climbed from 61% to 85% since 1990. However, resources have not kept pace with increasing numbers so that the quality of state education is regarded as very poor and achieving the MDG for universal literacy is far from certain. Many households are unable to pay fees charged for meaningful tuition and 3 million children in Egypt, the majority of them girls, have either dropped out of school or never attended.
Food Security in Egypt

Egypt is able to grow barely half of its demand for wheat and is the world’s largest importer of the crop. The country is therefore seriously exposed to the dramatic rise in world food prices, the latent threat to human development lying in the bulge of over 20% of the population which hovers just above the poverty line, already spending a large proportion of household income on food. The government has responded by holding the subsidised price of baladi bread which is available to all but normally shunned by the middle classes due to its lower quality. The inevitable increase in demand has led to shortages and, with the public mood becoming volatile, the army has been requisitioned to bake additional supplies. This bread subsidy costs the government almost $3.5 billion pa. The ration card scheme which subsidises essential foodstuffs such as rice and sugar has been extended to an additional 17 million people so that more than half of the population is now eligible. Exports of rice have been banned in order to protect supplies.

Although population growth of over 2% pa is a factor to consider in Egypt’s long term food security, it is the dominant and unforgiving desert terrain which limits production. The title of the government department responsible for farming – the Ministry of Agriculture and Reclamation – signifies Egypt’s belief in the potential of reclaiming land for agriculture. Major development plans are in place to progress towards food sufficiency by this means.
Climate Change in Egypt

Nile at Aswan © Jeff Black

No Ministry exists to address the impact of climate change in Egypt, nor even an agency to coordinate the country’s response. There appears to be a lack of detailed research into potential scenarios and few plans for adaptation. Yet most global studies are quick to point out that much of the Nile delta lies below sea level and precious arable land must be vulnerable to salt intrusion, even for conservative predictions of rising sea levels. One estimate suggests that a one meter rise in sea level would displace over 10% of Egypt’s population.

Upstream uncertainties create a potential pincer impact on the Nile. Opinion appears divided as to whether evaporation caused by rising temperatures will reduce the flow of the river or whether increased rainfall will replenish it. As the Nile provides 95% of Egypt’s freshwater needs, the importance of more confident predictions cannot be overstated.
Health in Egypt

Young Egyptian girls © Centre for Development and Population Activities

Improvements in maternal health and child mortality rates are one of Egypt’s development success-stories. Since 1970, the child mortality rate has dropped dramatically, from 157 per 1000 births, to 26 per 1000 in 2005, and maternal mortality rates have seen a similar decline. Further progress to achieve the health-related MDGs faces two very different obstacles. Firstly the poor level of government funding for healthcare is increasingly placing patients in a position where they are obliged to pay for treatment. Secondly, the state of sanitation in Egypt has been exposed as a serious health risk; a table of the “worst places in the world for sanitation” compiled in 2007 by the UK agency WaterAid lists Egypt in 16th place. The 2008 HDR concedes that, under a revised definition of safe sanitation, only 24% of Egypt’s rural population have access, far behind the MDG target.

Whilst the prevalence of HIV/AIDS is less than 0.1%, Egypt’s attitude to the virus remains trapped in a 1980s timewarp. In 2007, a group of men were sentenced to prison terms for homosexual conduct, the arrests and subsequent appalling treatment in custody apparently triggered by disclosure that one of the men was living with HIV. The case has exposed how poorly Egypt is equipped to deal with any increase in infections. HIV is virtually excluded from medical training and a survey showed that only 6% of women in Egypt understand how the virus is transmitted.
The Economy in Egypt

Cairo street trader © Jeff Black

Funds available for health and education are squeezed out by the clumsy profile of Egypt’s public spending which is dominated by just three items – subsidies on food and fuel which benefit the rich as much as the poor, the salaries of a bloated civil service and interest on government debt. Even the trade minister has acknowledged that 75% of the population has seen no benefit from recent years of economic growth. Yet the cabinet of Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif has been praised since 2004 for its pursuit of neo-liberal economic reforms.

In early 2008 the government conceded a 30% payrise for the civil service, finance by reducing subsidies on fuel. The inflationary spiral is provoking unprecedented public protest and the government will be hoping that booming revenues from Egypt’s natural gas reserves will help to maintain social and economic stability.



The OneWorld Egypt Guide was first published in December 2004 with a text written by Volunteer Editor Jeff Black

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