Poverty in Uganda

According to Uganda’s Poverty Eradication Action Plan (PEAP), the “overall strategy for poverty reduction…. is private sector driven industrialisation and export-led growth”. Whilst economic liberalisation has indeed delivered impressive headline growth over many years, the proportion of Ugandans living below the $1 per day benchmark for extreme poverty has not yet fallen significantly below the 2000 level of 34%. The government might counter by pointing out that the latest figure of 31% is already close to the 2015 target for the first of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) which aims to halve the 1991 rate of poverty (56%). However, Uganda’s population growth rate of 3.2% pa is one of the highest in the world so that the number of people in extreme poverty has remained unchanged in the vicinity of 9 million throughout the MDG period.

Recognising this effect, the PEAP sets the more demanding target of reducing poverty to 10% by 2017. To achieve this figure, it will be essential first to address the instability in the northern provinces where poverty rates exceed 60% and all human development indicators are critically low.

Computers for Ugandan school © Global Humanitaria

The admired achievement of the Universal Primary Education (UPE) programme also calls for some qualification. Since the UPE introduced free admission in 1997, net enrolment has risen to 84% and entry of girls now matches that of boys. However, the MDG Progress Report published in 2007 warns of a decline in the quality of education as the provision of teachers and facilities has not kept pace with the number of pupils which has more than doubled. It also suggests that poor completion rates may be the consequence of the introduction of fees for certain services.
Health and HIV/AIDS in Uganda

AIDS orphans in Uganda © United Nations Children's Fund

Child and maternal mortality rates remain very high in Uganda, having fallen by less than 20% since 1991; the Progress Report concedes that the relevant MDGs are “unlikely to be achieved”. The Report advocates more emphasis on education for girls and reproductive health care with a view to reducing teenage pregnancies and the high fertility rate of almost 7 children. Despite considerable improvement in the coverage of health facilities and the number of doctors and nurses, less than 50% of children aged 1-2 years have been fully immunised. Access to safe water has more than trebled from the low level of 20% in 1991 and, although this improvement meets the standard MDG target, the government has set an ambitious objective of 100% access by 2015.

From a peak of over 18% in the early 1990s, prevalence of HIV/AIDS has stabilised since 2000 in the range 6-7%, with new infections down to about 130,000 in 2006/07. Uganda claims to have already achieved the MDG to “halt and begin to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS” but the country report published in 2008 warns of “anecdotal indications….of an apparent increase in HIV prevalence and incidence during the last few years”.

Children at the Nyaka school for AIDS orphans © Nyaka AIDS Orphans School

This comment may reflect concerns about the impact of new prevention strategies in Uganda. At the height of the HIV crisis the country attracted global admiration for raising awareness of high risk behaviours through political commitment and leadership which engaged in promoting the ABC approach of Abstinence, Be faithful and Condom use. However, apparently under pressure from US donors, the government has since 2005 placed greater emphasis on abstinence and restricted the distribution of condoms. A complete U-turn in the school curriculum for HIV/AIDS is the most dramatic and worrying symptom of this policy change.

Although HIV testing is available in all districts, the goal of universal treatment by 2010 remains extremely unlikely as less than a third of 350,000 patients in need are currently receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART). Nevertheless, almost 300 centres providing free treatment for almost all patients have been opened. Funding sustainability may be in doubt as the HIV/AIDS programme is dependent for 94% of its costs on international donors.
Food Security in Uganda

Hunger walk, Uganda © Mbabazi Morgan

With much of the country covered in lush and fertile terrain, Uganda is not normally linked with food insecurity. Yet there is a contradiction between President Museveni’s talk of food surpluses and the reality that the average calorie intake of 68% of the population falls below the recommended minimum level, and that this proportion is increasing rather than falling. The main cause of declining productivity and inefficient food distribution is the low level of government investment in agriculture, which at 4.7% of national budget is below the Maputo Declaration commitment of 10% and which fails to recognise that 87% of the population lives in rural areas.

Reassurances about food surplus and exports overlook other painful realities. There is severe insecurity in the northern provinces where food production meets barely 50% of the needs of 2.3 million people. The semi-arid northeastern province of Karamoja has lost its 2008 harvest to drought and much of its livestock to disease. Acute malnutrition in children exceeds the official emergency level of 15% and almost the entire population of about 1 million depends on food aid.
Climate Change in Uganda

The Uganda Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) published at the end of 2007 states unequivocally that “Uganda’s agriculture is subsistent, rain-fed and, therefore, vulnerable to climate variability and climate change”. For example, a UNEP study concluded that a 2 degree rise in temperature would make it almost impossible to grow coffee beans, a commodity on which 5 million people are dependent directly or indirectly.

The NAPA presents extensive evidence that the predictions of climate change science are already occurring in Uganda, particularly in the frequency of drought and intensity of rainfall. In 2007 the east of the country experienced the heaviest rainfall in 35 years with 82,000 homes damaged by floods. Damage to soil caused by flooding is aggravated by the unusually high rate of deforestation, which is the inevitable result of near universal dependence on wood or charcoal for fuel in rural households. Reforestation is therefore identified as the highest priority for Uganda’s adaptation programme.

Health issues are also exposed to climate change. Malaria is already the main cause of death and illness in Uganda and is reported to have spread recently to the traditionally cooler highlands in the southeast where people have no natural immunity. The glaciers of the Rwenzori mountains have retreated by about 40% since 1955, threatening the stability of the water cycle.
The Economy in Uganda

These melting glaciers could even undermine Uganda’s most positive economic development – the discovery of oil reserves in the Semliki river basin along the border with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Flush with meltwater, the stronger flow of the Semliki has altered parts of its course by erosion, potentially enabling the DRC to claim land on which oil could be extracted. Demarcation of the border is currently the subject of negotiation.

Climate change is also partially responsible for constrained growth in non-food sectors of the economy. Drought and over-extraction have reduced the level of Lake Victoria to its lowest for over 60 years. Hydropower driven from the Lake has fallen below 50% of capacity, creating serious energy shortages which have forced many manufacturers to cut jobs or raise prices. Repeated praise in IMF annual reports for Uganda’s macro-economic management overlooks the limited prospects for development in rural areas where there is no electricity supply.

Uganda has reached the completion point under the Highly Indebted Poor Countries Initiative (HIPC) and its debt situation has been transformed following the relief announced at the July 2005 G8 summit. The international donor community continues to be supportive, funding 40% of the government budget.



The OneWorld Uganda Guide was first published in July 2005 with a text written by Volunteer Editor Esther Nakkazi

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