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Azerbaijan guide
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| © Eurasianet (Open Society Institute) |
Azerbaijan stands at a critical point in its post-Soviet history. Fifteen years on from independence, many Soviet spectres linger: environmental degradation, decaying infrastructure, rampant corruption, unresolved territorial disputes and widespread poverty. A huge weight of expectation rests on the boom in oil revenue that Azerbaijan is about to receive as foreign oil investments come into production. Managing this windfall to the benefit of the population at large will be the greatest challenge facing Azerbaijan over the next decade.
updated February 2007
Millennium Development Goals
Azerbaijans approach to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) is encouraging. A State Commission chaired by the prime minister is responsible for preparing the 2006-2015 State Programme for Poverty Reduction and Sustainable Development (SPPRSD) which will be aligned with both the targets and the timescale of the MDGs. In a progress report published in 2005 Azerbaijan claims to be the first developing country to combine reporting of its poverty reduction strategy with MDG progress.
Significantly, the oil revenue that Azerbaijan can expect over the next 15 years, if responsibly invested, should provide the resources required to meet most of the MDGs. As well as spending oil revenues prudently, there are other major challenges to overcome if the Goals are to be achieved, in particular improving governance, reforming public services and reducing corruption.
Azerbaijan assesses poverty by reference to a minimum subsistence income which in 2006 was judged to be $65 per month. The number of people below this poverty line has fallen sharply in recent years but remains at over 20% of the population and the focus of Azerbaijans MDGs strategy is poverty reduction. The country has a head-start in the education Goals with near universal literacy and good enrolment rates for primary education. However, the quality of education provided remains a concern.
The provision of general healthcare and access to clean drinking water is poor. Devising solutions and monitoring improvements in these issues is hampered by the absence of reliable data.
Domestic Politics
The Republic of Azerbaijan has a secular system in which power is consolidated in the presidency. The current leader, Ilham Aliyev, inherited the presidency from his father in 2003 and heads the dominant Yeni Azerbaijan Party (YAP).
The countrys democratic status is tenuous. The 2003 presidential elections which brought Ilham Aliyev to power and the 2005 parliamentary elections that produced an overwhelming victory for the ruling YAP were considered by international observers to be deeply flawed. Both elections were preceded by the suppression of opposition candidates, activists and parties through intimidation and bureaucratic restrictions. The results in some constituencies were annulled on the recommendation of the International Election Observation Mission and voting had to be repeated in 2006.
One of the most serious factors blighting the governments legitimacy and effectiveness is corruption. Ranked amongst the most corrupt countries in the world, widespread allegations of corruption point to the highest levels of government and permeate downward. The government has recently taken significant legislative steps to counter corruption and signed up to some key international transparency agreements. However, it remains to be seen if these steps signify anything other than cosmetic gestures to a deeply entrenched problem.
Despite these political and democratic shortcomings, it is thought unlikely that a colour revolution, such as those in Georgia and Ukraine, is imminent. This can be firstly attributed to the frailty of the main opposition, Azadlig, whose weak standing is not only a result of effective government oppression, but also stems from negative associations with the turbulent politics of the 1990s. The second reason is a fear amongst many Azerbaijanis of economic and political instability and a potential return to violence.
International Politics
Abundant energy resources and location make Azerbaijan a country of high geo-political significance where Iran, Russia, Europe and the US, with their frequently conflicting interests, vie for influence. The most significant investment project has been the $3 billion Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline that gives the West access to Azerbaijans energy reserves without relying on Russia as a transporter.
It has been suggested that the importance attached by the United States and Europe to military and energy interests in Azerbaijan has heavily shaped their foreign policy stance towards Aliyevs government. The United States in particular has come under strong criticism for the soft stance it has taken towards Azerbaijan on democratic reform, human rights and press freedom.
Azerbaijan has supported the United States by deploying small but symbolically significant numbers of troops to Iraq and Afghanistan. In return, it has received a sharp increase in American military aid and training.
Conflict
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, predominantly a territorial dispute over an ethnically Armenian area of western Azerbaijan, has dominated the countrys post-Soviet history. Following escalating ethnic tensions and a declaration of independence by Nagorno-Karabakh in 1991, a large-scale conflict broke out between Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakhs ethnic Armenian populace which were backed by Armenian forces. A ceasefire was brokered by Russia in 1994.
The fighting resulted in the loss of over 30,000 lives. In addition, the dispute produced over 300,000 ethnic Armenian and 800,000 ethnic Azeri refugees, the majority of whom remain internally displaced and live in abject poverty. The World Food Programme has estimated that 300,000 refugees will be in need of food aid for the forseeable future.
Armenian forces continue to occupy Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding seven districts, an area comprising approximately 20 per cent of Azerbaijan. Although the 1994 ceasefire has been largely upheld, persistent incidents involving landmines, sniper fire and sporadic outbursts of fighting claim over 100 lives a year.
A permanent political solution to the dispute remains elusive despite intense mediation efforts from the Minsk Group, chaired by Russia, France and the United States. The work of this Group has established the broad principles of a potential settlement - a partial withdrawal of Armenian troops, a referendum on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, an international peace-keeping force and generous aid. Renewed hopes for a lasting resolution, attached to a series of talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia at presidential level in early 2006, were in vain. There are fears that elections due in both countries in 2007 and 2008 will forestall any further progress for the time being. Every year of delay increases the potential imbalance of power as Azerbaijan gains economic resources to escalate its military spending, considered likely to exceed $1 billion in 2007.
Human Rights and Media
Azerbaijans overall human rights record remains poor. In particular, tight constraints are placed on the right of assembly. Where permission is granted, public rallies often provide the excuse for arrests of opposition activists. A dramatic intervention by the European Court of Human Rights, in which Azerbaijan was declared guilty of torturing an opposition official, will put pressure on the government to clean up its legacy of unacceptable police methods.
Similar pressures targeted at freedom of expression appear ineffective as observers point to the government's increasingly tight control over the freedom of the press and the various means adopted to suffocate pro-opposition media and criticism. The major broadcasting channels are either state-controlled or controlled by groups close to the government. Laws allow the government to easily convict journalists for defamation, an offence punishable by imprisonment or crippling fines. Physical assaults on journalists became more serious during 2006.
Civil society is monitored and regulated closely by the government. Many NGOs that are critical of government policy are pressured and harassed, most frequently through bureaucratic obstacles. As in many other former Soviet countries, the government's concern focuses on the flow of foreign funding into the non-governmental sector.
Health
Azerbaijans health system is in need of major reform. Identifying key problem areas and monitoring progress is hampered by the absence of data although infant mortality is known to be exceptionally high relative to other countries in the region. Severe budgetary restrictions result in low salaries for healthcare workers and a national shortage of medical equipment and drugs. Under these circumstances, it has become a widespread necessity for patients to pay bribes in order to receive treatment or medication. Hospitals and health centres are heavily dependent on international humanitarian assistance to provide the insufficient stocks of drugs and equipment.
Water contaminated by industrial waste and poor sanitation, particularly on the Caspian shores, exacerbates the risks of cholera, hepatitis A and typhoid. Tuberculosis has been a prevalent problem in recent years but infection rates are now believed to be falling sharply. HIV incidence is on the rise, but is not thought to represent a major health problem.
Economy
Azerbaijans economy is dependent on revenue created from the export of oil and gas. The huge influx of foreign investment in these energy extraction industries is set to produce an imminent boom in export revenue. As oil investment projects reach fruition, Azerbaijan can expect its economy to triple over the next five years. However, this resource-based economic windfall has a finite time span and is predicted to last only until 2020 or 2025.
The effective management of oil revenues is critical as the transformation of oil wealth into economic prosperity is a notoriously difficult task. Excessive, rapid and mismanaged public expenditure of oil wealth frequently damages the economy through soaring inflation and the onslaught of Dutch disease in which non-oil industries fail to take root.
The government has acknowledged that a proportion of oil revenue must be re-invested in developing human capital, improving physical infrastructure, job creation and growing non-energy sector industries. It is working with the IMF and Asian Development Bank on projects and policies that will facilitate such objectives, and has established the SOFAZ oil fund.
Despite this potential embarrassment of riches, there are significant short term problems with large increases in prices of basic utilities creating public disenchantment. Over 600,000 Azeris work overseas in Russia returning remittances which account for 6% of the Azerbaijan GDP.
Environment
A century of oil production and environmental neglect has left much of Azerbaijans environment in a dismal state. Pollution from the extraction, refining and transit of oil and gas has severely degraded the quality of water, air, and soil. The most affected areas are around the Absheron peninsular and Sumqayit. The Caspian and inland waterways also suffer from chemical contamination caused by agricultural run-off and industrial toxic waste. These factors have had a highly detrimental effect on public health and the availability of safe drinking water.
There are a number of positive government policy initiatives and NGOs promoting environmental improvement and sustainable development. Unfortunately, their efforts are limited by inadequate funding and nominal political will. Problems are compounded by a lack of regional strategy between Caspian littoral states and continuing government prioritisation of economic rewards over environmental concerns.
The OneWorld Azerbaijan Guide was first published in April 2006 with a text written by Volunteer Editor Edward Roman
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Azerbaijans approach to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) is encouraging. A State Commission chaired by the prime minister is responsible for preparing the 2006-2015 State Programme for Poverty Reduction and Sustainable Development (SPPRSD) which will be aligned with both the targets and the timescale of the MDGs. In a progress report published in 2005 Azerbaijan claims to be the first developing country to combine reporting of its poverty reduction strategy with MDG progress.
Significantly, the oil revenue that Azerbaijan can expect over the next 15 years, if responsibly invested, should provide the resources required to meet most of the MDGs. As well as spending oil revenues prudently, there are other major challenges to overcome if the Goals are to be achieved, in particular improving governance, reforming public services and reducing corruption.
Azerbaijan assesses poverty by reference to a minimum subsistence income which in 2006 was judged to be $65 per month. The number of people below this poverty line has fallen sharply in recent years but remains at over 20% of the population and the focus of Azerbaijans MDGs strategy is poverty reduction. The country has a head-start in the education Goals with near universal literacy and good enrolment rates for primary education. However, the quality of education provided remains a concern.
The provision of general healthcare and access to clean drinking water is poor. Devising solutions and monitoring improvements in these issues is hampered by the absence of reliable data.
Domestic Politics
|
| Ilham Aliyev © Radio Netherlands Wereldomroep |
The countrys democratic status is tenuous. The 2003 presidential elections which brought Ilham Aliyev to power and the 2005 parliamentary elections that produced an overwhelming victory for the ruling YAP were considered by international observers to be deeply flawed. Both elections were preceded by the suppression of opposition candidates, activists and parties through intimidation and bureaucratic restrictions. The results in some constituencies were annulled on the recommendation of the International Election Observation Mission and voting had to be repeated in 2006.
One of the most serious factors blighting the governments legitimacy and effectiveness is corruption. Ranked amongst the most corrupt countries in the world, widespread allegations of corruption point to the highest levels of government and permeate downward. The government has recently taken significant legislative steps to counter corruption and signed up to some key international transparency agreements. However, it remains to be seen if these steps signify anything other than cosmetic gestures to a deeply entrenched problem.
Despite these political and democratic shortcomings, it is thought unlikely that a colour revolution, such as those in Georgia and Ukraine, is imminent. This can be firstly attributed to the frailty of the main opposition, Azadlig, whose weak standing is not only a result of effective government oppression, but also stems from negative associations with the turbulent politics of the 1990s. The second reason is a fear amongst many Azerbaijanis of economic and political instability and a potential return to violence.
International Politics
|
| Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline at Baku |
It has been suggested that the importance attached by the United States and Europe to military and energy interests in Azerbaijan has heavily shaped their foreign policy stance towards Aliyevs government. The United States in particular has come under strong criticism for the soft stance it has taken towards Azerbaijan on democratic reform, human rights and press freedom.
Azerbaijan has supported the United States by deploying small but symbolically significant numbers of troops to Iraq and Afghanistan. In return, it has received a sharp increase in American military aid and training.
Conflict
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, predominantly a territorial dispute over an ethnically Armenian area of western Azerbaijan, has dominated the countrys post-Soviet history. Following escalating ethnic tensions and a declaration of independence by Nagorno-Karabakh in 1991, a large-scale conflict broke out between Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakhs ethnic Armenian populace which were backed by Armenian forces. A ceasefire was brokered by Russia in 1994.
The fighting resulted in the loss of over 30,000 lives. In addition, the dispute produced over 300,000 ethnic Armenian and 800,000 ethnic Azeri refugees, the majority of whom remain internally displaced and live in abject poverty. The World Food Programme has estimated that 300,000 refugees will be in need of food aid for the forseeable future.
Armenian forces continue to occupy Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding seven districts, an area comprising approximately 20 per cent of Azerbaijan. Although the 1994 ceasefire has been largely upheld, persistent incidents involving landmines, sniper fire and sporadic outbursts of fighting claim over 100 lives a year.
A permanent political solution to the dispute remains elusive despite intense mediation efforts from the Minsk Group, chaired by Russia, France and the United States. The work of this Group has established the broad principles of a potential settlement - a partial withdrawal of Armenian troops, a referendum on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, an international peace-keeping force and generous aid. Renewed hopes for a lasting resolution, attached to a series of talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia at presidential level in early 2006, were in vain. There are fears that elections due in both countries in 2007 and 2008 will forestall any further progress for the time being. Every year of delay increases the potential imbalance of power as Azerbaijan gains economic resources to escalate its military spending, considered likely to exceed $1 billion in 2007.
Human Rights and Media
|
| Human rights violations in Azerbaijan © Canadian Journalists for Free Expression / International Freedom of Expression Exchange Clearing House |
Similar pressures targeted at freedom of expression appear ineffective as observers point to the government's increasingly tight control over the freedom of the press and the various means adopted to suffocate pro-opposition media and criticism. The major broadcasting channels are either state-controlled or controlled by groups close to the government. Laws allow the government to easily convict journalists for defamation, an offence punishable by imprisonment or crippling fines. Physical assaults on journalists became more serious during 2006.
Civil society is monitored and regulated closely by the government. Many NGOs that are critical of government policy are pressured and harassed, most frequently through bureaucratic obstacles. As in many other former Soviet countries, the government's concern focuses on the flow of foreign funding into the non-governmental sector.
Health
Azerbaijans health system is in need of major reform. Identifying key problem areas and monitoring progress is hampered by the absence of data although infant mortality is known to be exceptionally high relative to other countries in the region. Severe budgetary restrictions result in low salaries for healthcare workers and a national shortage of medical equipment and drugs. Under these circumstances, it has become a widespread necessity for patients to pay bribes in order to receive treatment or medication. Hospitals and health centres are heavily dependent on international humanitarian assistance to provide the insufficient stocks of drugs and equipment.
Water contaminated by industrial waste and poor sanitation, particularly on the Caspian shores, exacerbates the risks of cholera, hepatitis A and typhoid. Tuberculosis has been a prevalent problem in recent years but infection rates are now believed to be falling sharply. HIV incidence is on the rise, but is not thought to represent a major health problem.
Economy
Azerbaijans economy is dependent on revenue created from the export of oil and gas. The huge influx of foreign investment in these energy extraction industries is set to produce an imminent boom in export revenue. As oil investment projects reach fruition, Azerbaijan can expect its economy to triple over the next five years. However, this resource-based economic windfall has a finite time span and is predicted to last only until 2020 or 2025.
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| Community ICT in Azerbaijan |
The government has acknowledged that a proportion of oil revenue must be re-invested in developing human capital, improving physical infrastructure, job creation and growing non-energy sector industries. It is working with the IMF and Asian Development Bank on projects and policies that will facilitate such objectives, and has established the SOFAZ oil fund.
Despite this potential embarrassment of riches, there are significant short term problems with large increases in prices of basic utilities creating public disenchantment. Over 600,000 Azeris work overseas in Russia returning remittances which account for 6% of the Azerbaijan GDP.
Environment
A century of oil production and environmental neglect has left much of Azerbaijans environment in a dismal state. Pollution from the extraction, refining and transit of oil and gas has severely degraded the quality of water, air, and soil. The most affected areas are around the Absheron peninsular and Sumqayit. The Caspian and inland waterways also suffer from chemical contamination caused by agricultural run-off and industrial toxic waste. These factors have had a highly detrimental effect on public health and the availability of safe drinking water.
There are a number of positive government policy initiatives and NGOs promoting environmental improvement and sustainable development. Unfortunately, their efforts are limited by inadequate funding and nominal political will. Problems are compounded by a lack of regional strategy between Caspian littoral states and continuing government prioritisation of economic rewards over environmental concerns.
The OneWorld Azerbaijan Guide was first published in April 2006 with a text written by Volunteer Editor Edward Roman
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