Poverty in Timor-Leste

Timor-Leste (previously known as East Timor) has made a late start in tackling the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), having achieved independence only in May 2002. Consequently baseline data for the Goals is taken from surveys conducted around the time of independence rather than 1990 as for other countries. For example, over 40% of the population fell below the poverty line in 2001 (assessed by ability to buy food and basic essentials). The first MDG target aims to reduce the rate of extreme poverty (assessed by ability to buy food) to 14% from a level of 21% effective in 2001.

Even this modest target will present a formidable challenge. Although there have been no subsequent reliable surveys, it is apparent that poverty has been rising rather than falling in the years since 2001. UNDP estimates that achievement of the poverty targets for Timor-Leste will cost $48 million per year, while fulfilment of the other Goals will cost two to three times that amount. The annual population growth rate of 3.4%, one of the highest in the world, boosts these estimates. Whilst oil and gas revenue from the Timor Gap raises prospects for the sustainable and equitable national growth that will be essential to generate such resources, the 2006 violence in the capital has undermined all development programmes.

Women demonstrate in Timor-Leste © Penny Tweedie/Panos

The World Bank reports that the post-referendum violence perpetrated by Indonesian forces in 1999 destroyed 70% of health facilities in Timor-Leste and led to the departure overseas of all but 20 doctors. Less than 50% of women giving birth have assistance from a skilled health professional and maternal mortality rates remain very high by the standards of the region. Half of the population does not have access to safe drinking water and 60% lack adequate sanitation.

Some progress has however been made in education and health - the consequence of a "pro-poor" National Development Plan for 2002-2007 whose objectives are consistent with the MDGs. Indeed the government has pledged to commit at least 30% of the national budget to health, education, water and sanitation. Enrolment in primary schools has risen from 50% in 2000 to 80% although adult literacy remains only 50%. Immunisation of children under the age of one has increased from 23% in 2001 to 55% in 2005.

Food Security in Timor-Leste

Irrevocably linked with poverty is the decline in food security in Timor-Leste. In the absence of policies to assist them, farmers are too poor to upgrade their equipment, maintain irrigation or even to purchase seeds. The country lies in a region known to be particularly sensitive to the unpredictable impacts of El Nino and climate change. This combination of factors in 2007 caused a reduction of 30% in cereals and 20% in rice production; in West Timor yields are believed to be down as much as 50%. The country is in any event nowhere near self-sufficient in food and therefore exposed to increasingly expensive imports. 46% of children are assessed to have stunted growth due to malnutrition. The World Food Programme has projected that over 200,000 people, 20% of the population, will need assistance in the "hunger" months leading up to March 2008.

Timor-Leste is a mountainous half-island with a monsoonal climate. Seasonal downpours are interrupted by almost seven rainless months per year. Unsustainable logging and slash and burn agricultural practices have exacerbated flooding, landslides and erosion. Such problems add to the difficulties in linking and maintaining the fragile rural infrastructure. Indonesian counter-insurgency tactics also took their toll on the environment with deforestation and forced relocation of communities to low lands. The rate of deforestation during the Indonesian occupation was over 1% per annum. Such significant environmental issues underline Timor's fragile agricultural system and food insecurity.
The Economy in Timor-Leste

Weak institutional capacity in Timor-Leste derives from the Indonesian exclusion of the Timorese from management positions in the civil service. The shortfall in human capital has handicapped delivery of government spending plans and prolonged a culture of corruption. Timor-Leste's economy is characterised by sluggish investment of aid funds and oil revenues - inadequate road construction is one example.

85% of the country's one million people depend on fragile subsistence agriculture for their livelihood. Their interaction with world trade is a handful of beans, quite literally: in 2004 Timor-Leste formally traded $7 million in coffee (out of total, non-oil exports of $8 million). The livelihoods of 40,000 families depend on the fickle global coffee market. While unemployment statistics in a largely agrarian and informal economy are difficult to ascertain, the level of those without paid jobs is between 23% in urban areas and 44 % among youth in Dili. With population growth adding about 14,000 young people each year into a stagnant labour market, economic disenchantment is undoubtedly one of the reasons why social stability is so fragile.

Much of the petroleum wealth in the Timor Sea has been controversially claimed by Australia, despite Timor-Leste being entitled to 100% under the principles of the UN Convention on the Law of Sea. Following successive negotiations in 2006 and 2007 over this longstanding territorial dispute, Timor-Leste is projected to receive $1 billion pa for the next 20 years, a massive proportion of its economy. This revenue should allow Timor-Leste to finance human development free of international debt, provided that the pitfalls of an oil-dependent economy can be avoided.



The OneWorld Timor-Leste Guide was first published in this format in December 2006 with a text written by Volunteer Editor Ben Moxham

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