Zambia guide
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| Nthombimbi Primary School © United Nations Children's Fund |
The roller coaster of world prices for copper, food and fuel creates unenviable hazards for the management of Zambia’s landlocked economy. Strict adherence to the macro-economic rules of international donors has served only to exclude the poor from such rewards as have been forthcoming in recent years. The battle to reverse exceptionally high levels of poverty and HIV prevalence now encounters a potential triple crisis of food insecurity, climate change and global recession.
updated March 2009
Poverty in Zambia
Zambia’s 2008 Progress Report for the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) is introduced with a statement that the country is “most likely to achieve all the goals but one”. This should be viewed as a somewhat optimistic interpretation of the figures which are presented with admirable clarity in the report. Extreme poverty is measured by reference to the cost of basic food requirements and has decreased only from 58% to 51% of the population in the period 1991-2006. This remains one of the highest poverty rates in sub-Saharan Africa.
Although the Fifth National Development Plan for 2006-2011 gives reassuring priority to poverty reduction, the 2015 target of 29% surely presents a formidable challenge. There is a growing gap between the rich and the poor. The elite (in the cities) have adopted a western standard of living and put great emphasis on material wealth. The rate of extreme poverty in rural areas is more than three times the urban rate.
By contrast, the Goal for education is almost certain to be achieved, thanks in part to relevant government expenditure rising to over 15% of the national budget by 2008. Net primary enrolment for both boys and girls is already close to 100%, following the introduction of free primary schooling in 2003. There is however a serious shortage of teachers, especially in rural areas. With an average of 57 pupils per class, there are real concerns about the quality of education.
Health and HIV/AIDS in Zambia
The shortage of teachers is just one consequence of the human tragedy in Zambia whose people are fighting one of the world’s severest rates of HIV/AIDS. The situation is described by UNAIDS as the “most serious threat to the development agenda in Zambia.... unless the response to HIV prevention, treatment, care and support is scaled-up. Prevalence has stabilised since 2001 but remained as high as 14.3% in 2007, despite expenditure of $223 million in that year.
Due to the pandemic, life expectancy at birth has dropped from 50 years to 40 years and over 800,000 Zambian children have been orphaned. The rate is higher in the cities than in village areas whilst girls in the 15-19 age group experience four times the rate of infection of boys. In a conservative and patriarchal society, girls find themselves less able to negotiate safe sex.
Testing is widely available and promoted but the take-up rate is only 15%. The number of clinics with capacity to prescribe free life-prolonging antiretroviral therapy (ART) has increased exponentially in the last five years. However, coverage remained under 60% of those in need by the end of 2007.
Another barrier to HIV/AIDS treatment and health care in general is the shortage of qualified staff in the health sector with only about 50% of vacancies filled. This is greatly aggravated by poor working conditions which prompt emigration to better paid countries in Europe or the United States. According to the Zambia Country Report for HIV/AIDS, there were only 646 doctors in 2007, covering a population of nearly 12 million.
This shortage is a key cause of the high maternal mortality rate in Zambia - only 46% of births in 2007 were attended by skilled health personnel, a lower figure than in 1996. Nevertheless, there is encouragement in the maternal mortality trend which improved from 649 per 100,000 births to 449 over the same period.
User fees for health services, which had made treatment unaffordable for the majority, were abolished for vulnerable groups living in rural areas in 2006. There is criticism that implementation of the measure has been too slow. For example, Zambia has an average of about 4 million cases of malaria each year. Without adequate treatment the disease causes the majority of deaths of children and, according to the World Bank, reduces economic growth by 1.5%.
General health standards are also held back by a worrying reverse in access to safe sanitation; the proportion of the population lacking adequate facilities has increased from 26% to 36% since 1991. Cholera has been reported in Southern Province in the aftermath of severe flooding.
Food Security in Zambia
Harvests have been reasonably good in recent years and Zambia is capable of producing sufficient food for its needs in aggregate. However, the World Food Programme describes food insecurity as widespread due to sensitivity to local rainfall patterns. Where yields are poor, subsistence farmers lack resources to purchase in the markets.
The country has entered 2009 with even less robust food security. Escalating costs of fuel and fertiliser through 2008 created difficulties for poor farmers which government subsidies have only partially eased. The authorities have been forced to resort to importing maize after difficulties in managing the relationship between state and private wholesalers. The availability of cheap government stocks of staple foods in the hunger season up to April 2009 has been tight with Southern Province experiencing the worst of the hunger.
When the USA sent genetically engineered maize as food aid in 2002, Zambia controversially refused to accept it for fear of negative impacts on health and contamination of its agricultural production and environment. This policy remains in place.
Climate Change in Zambia
With such marginal food security and low capacity to adapt farming practices, Zambia is highly vulnerable to climate change. The country is responsible for a miniscule 0.006% of global carbon dioxide emissions but a 2007 report by the World Conservation Union (IUCN) says that climate change will hit Zambia particularly hard. The government's National Adaptation Programme of Action published in 2007 reports that "drought and floods have increased in frequency, intensity and magnitude over the last two decades and have adversely impacted on food and water insecurity."
Zambia’s own poverty may be reinforcing soil and water degradation. In the almost total absence of any electricity supply in rural areas, forest and woodland is depleted for cooking fuel and charcoal production. With mining absorbing about half of all power supplies, there is little prospect of a short term solution to the underlying cause of deforestation. The rate may be sufficiently high to accelerate an unwelcome transition to more arid land conditions. There is already evidence of long term reduction in rainfall of over 2% per decade since 1960.
The Economy in Zambia
The 2008 MDG progress report makes repeated reference to the importance a “supportive environment” for poverty reduction. Whilst this phrase is used in its all-embracing sense, the economic environment for Zambia during the period since an earlier 2005 report has been overwhelmingly supportive. Indeed it is pertinent to question why the pace of human development has been so disappointing in a period of booming copper prices, exponential increase in foreign direct investment, debt relief from over $7 billion to $500 million, aid in excess of 25% of the national budget and gushing praise from IMF monitoring visits.
The finger of suspicion must point at the fact that, since 1991, the long road to debt relief forced the government into the arms of IMF structural adjustment. Zambia has liberalised its economy through privatisation of state owned companies, cautious government spending and a welcome to foreign investors.
One problem has been the limited tax yield from copper mining which accounts for 70%-80% of exports. Under influence of the international financial institutions, Zambia set low tax parameters. Even in the best years, mining revenues were less than the amount of aid received from single European governments. By 2008 public outrage persuaded the government to ratchet up these taxes, only to be forced to reverse some of the changes in early 2009 as the price of copper embarked on a dramatic downward spiral. The discovery of potential oil and gas reserves in 2007 may be pursued with mixed feelings.
Reserves of natural resources requiring investment are a magnet to China which now has significant interests in Zambia. In 2007 the Zambia-China Economic & Trade Corporation zone was established, offering tax exemptions to Chinese companies in return for $800 million of investment in manufacturing over 3 years. These commitments include the construction of two hydroelectric power stations in Upper Kariba.
The effects of these various reforms have therefore not yet delivered benefits to the majority of Zambians, only 400,000 of whom are engaged in the formal employment sector. Of further concern is the uncertain impact on poverty of events which postdate the 2008 report – the hike in farm input prices and the global economic recession.
Politics in Zambia
Despite this track record of uneven distribution, the new Zambian president, Rupiah Banda, evidently felt no contradiction in presenting his combined priorities for poverty reduction and continuity of his predecessor’s economic policies. The October 2008 presidential by-election came about through the death of President Levy Mwanawasa who had been in office since 2001.
Banda won the election by the narrowest of margins over Michael Sata, long-serving head of the opposition Patriotic Front (PF) party whose support is drawn more from the cities than the rural poor. Initial fears of a violent reaction subsided as international observers ruled the election as largely free and fair. The ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) has been in power since the first multi-party elections for seats in the National Assembly took place in 1991.
Mwanawasa’s presidency was respected internationally for his economic policies and his attempt to crack down on corruption, most notably in a high profile case against his former colleague and president, Frederick Chiluba. Having refused an amnesty in return for disclosure and repayment of embezzled state funds, Chiluba should finally face trial in 2009. His wife has already been imprisoned for receiving stolen goods. At less exalted levels, the Anti-Corruption Commission maintains an active casebook but struggles with the slow and poorly resourced judicial process.
During his first term, Mwanawasa appointed two committees to make recommendations for reforms of the electoral process and constitution. A draft constitution was presented in December 2005, the proposed changes aimed at rebalancing powers away from the president towards parliament. For example, new electoral rules would require the successful candidate to obtain at least 50% of votes.
After the 2006 elections, the president established a National Constitution Conference to consider the draft for eventual submission to parliament for adoption during 2009. Although the Conference purports to represent all sectors, both the Patriotic Front opposition and civil society leaders consider that it includes too many members of parliament from the ruling MMD party.
Civil society thrives: Zambia has many active non-governmental organizations and civil society groups. However, new NGO legislation proposed in 2007 suggests that the government is uncomfortable with the criticism that it draws from civil society groups.
Human Rights in Zambia
Many international human rights treaties ratified by Zambia have not been integrated into national laws and Zambians have limited knowledge of their rights and how to enforce them. Creating such awareness is the role of the Human Rights Commission but its institutional capacity to enforce international standards is weak. The death penalty is still imposed for serious crimes, but there have been no executions since 1997.
Examples of gaps between Zambian law and international commitments include the treatment of women and refugees. Gender inequality is widespread. Zambia's constitutional and legal systems in the last 40 years have not addressed women's exposure to domestic violence, discrimination and lack of property rights. The government recognises these problems and created in 2000 a Division for Gender in Development within the cabinet and committed itself to mainstreaming gender in all the sectors of society.
With no fewer than seven shared national borders, Zambia is very exposed to the consequences of social instability in Africa. At one time in the 1990s, it hosted over 300,000 refugees, mainly Congolese and Angolans. No Zambian citizenship is offered and the UN Refugee Agency lobbies the government for new laws to meet the terms of the 1951 Convention. Meanwhile the restoration of relative calm in Angola and the DRC has enabled voluntary repatriation to reduce remaining refugees to under 100,000, although these may be boosted by an unknown number of Zimbabweans.
The OneWorld Zambia Guide was first published in December 2006 with a text written by Volunteer Editor Akke Jeanne Klerk.
Zambia’s 2008 Progress Report for the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) is introduced with a statement that the country is “most likely to achieve all the goals but one”. This should be viewed as a somewhat optimistic interpretation of the figures which are presented with admirable clarity in the report. Extreme poverty is measured by reference to the cost of basic food requirements and has decreased only from 58% to 51% of the population in the period 1991-2006. This remains one of the highest poverty rates in sub-Saharan Africa.
Although the Fifth National Development Plan for 2006-2011 gives reassuring priority to poverty reduction, the 2015 target of 29% surely presents a formidable challenge. There is a growing gap between the rich and the poor. The elite (in the cities) have adopted a western standard of living and put great emphasis on material wealth. The rate of extreme poverty in rural areas is more than three times the urban rate.
By contrast, the Goal for education is almost certain to be achieved, thanks in part to relevant government expenditure rising to over 15% of the national budget by 2008. Net primary enrolment for both boys and girls is already close to 100%, following the introduction of free primary schooling in 2003. There is however a serious shortage of teachers, especially in rural areas. With an average of 57 pupils per class, there are real concerns about the quality of education.
Health and HIV/AIDS in Zambia
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| Annie Kaseketi Mwaba, an HIV positive pastor in Zambia © Centre for Development and Population Activities |
Due to the pandemic, life expectancy at birth has dropped from 50 years to 40 years and over 800,000 Zambian children have been orphaned. The rate is higher in the cities than in village areas whilst girls in the 15-19 age group experience four times the rate of infection of boys. In a conservative and patriarchal society, girls find themselves less able to negotiate safe sex.
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| HIV test promotion in Zambia © Jon Rawlinson / Flickr |
Another barrier to HIV/AIDS treatment and health care in general is the shortage of qualified staff in the health sector with only about 50% of vacancies filled. This is greatly aggravated by poor working conditions which prompt emigration to better paid countries in Europe or the United States. According to the Zambia Country Report for HIV/AIDS, there were only 646 doctors in 2007, covering a population of nearly 12 million.
This shortage is a key cause of the high maternal mortality rate in Zambia - only 46% of births in 2007 were attended by skilled health personnel, a lower figure than in 1996. Nevertheless, there is encouragement in the maternal mortality trend which improved from 649 per 100,000 births to 449 over the same period.
User fees for health services, which had made treatment unaffordable for the majority, were abolished for vulnerable groups living in rural areas in 2006. There is criticism that implementation of the measure has been too slow. For example, Zambia has an average of about 4 million cases of malaria each year. Without adequate treatment the disease causes the majority of deaths of children and, according to the World Bank, reduces economic growth by 1.5%.
General health standards are also held back by a worrying reverse in access to safe sanitation; the proportion of the population lacking adequate facilities has increased from 26% to 36% since 1991. Cholera has been reported in Southern Province in the aftermath of severe flooding.
Food Security in Zambia
Harvests have been reasonably good in recent years and Zambia is capable of producing sufficient food for its needs in aggregate. However, the World Food Programme describes food insecurity as widespread due to sensitivity to local rainfall patterns. Where yields are poor, subsistence farmers lack resources to purchase in the markets.
The country has entered 2009 with even less robust food security. Escalating costs of fuel and fertiliser through 2008 created difficulties for poor farmers which government subsidies have only partially eased. The authorities have been forced to resort to importing maize after difficulties in managing the relationship between state and private wholesalers. The availability of cheap government stocks of staple foods in the hunger season up to April 2009 has been tight with Southern Province experiencing the worst of the hunger.
When the USA sent genetically engineered maize as food aid in 2002, Zambia controversially refused to accept it for fear of negative impacts on health and contamination of its agricultural production and environment. This policy remains in place.
Climate Change in Zambia
With such marginal food security and low capacity to adapt farming practices, Zambia is highly vulnerable to climate change. The country is responsible for a miniscule 0.006% of global carbon dioxide emissions but a 2007 report by the World Conservation Union (IUCN) says that climate change will hit Zambia particularly hard. The government's National Adaptation Programme of Action published in 2007 reports that "drought and floods have increased in frequency, intensity and magnitude over the last two decades and have adversely impacted on food and water insecurity."
Zambia’s own poverty may be reinforcing soil and water degradation. In the almost total absence of any electricity supply in rural areas, forest and woodland is depleted for cooking fuel and charcoal production. With mining absorbing about half of all power supplies, there is little prospect of a short term solution to the underlying cause of deforestation. The rate may be sufficiently high to accelerate an unwelcome transition to more arid land conditions. There is already evidence of long term reduction in rainfall of over 2% per decade since 1960.
The Economy in Zambia
The 2008 MDG progress report makes repeated reference to the importance a “supportive environment” for poverty reduction. Whilst this phrase is used in its all-embracing sense, the economic environment for Zambia during the period since an earlier 2005 report has been overwhelmingly supportive. Indeed it is pertinent to question why the pace of human development has been so disappointing in a period of booming copper prices, exponential increase in foreign direct investment, debt relief from over $7 billion to $500 million, aid in excess of 25% of the national budget and gushing praise from IMF monitoring visits.
The finger of suspicion must point at the fact that, since 1991, the long road to debt relief forced the government into the arms of IMF structural adjustment. Zambia has liberalised its economy through privatisation of state owned companies, cautious government spending and a welcome to foreign investors.
One problem has been the limited tax yield from copper mining which accounts for 70%-80% of exports. Under influence of the international financial institutions, Zambia set low tax parameters. Even in the best years, mining revenues were less than the amount of aid received from single European governments. By 2008 public outrage persuaded the government to ratchet up these taxes, only to be forced to reverse some of the changes in early 2009 as the price of copper embarked on a dramatic downward spiral. The discovery of potential oil and gas reserves in 2007 may be pursued with mixed feelings.
Reserves of natural resources requiring investment are a magnet to China which now has significant interests in Zambia. In 2007 the Zambia-China Economic & Trade Corporation zone was established, offering tax exemptions to Chinese companies in return for $800 million of investment in manufacturing over 3 years. These commitments include the construction of two hydroelectric power stations in Upper Kariba.
The effects of these various reforms have therefore not yet delivered benefits to the majority of Zambians, only 400,000 of whom are engaged in the formal employment sector. Of further concern is the uncertain impact on poverty of events which postdate the 2008 report – the hike in farm input prices and the global economic recession.
Politics in Zambia
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| Rupiah Banda © Nebert Mulenga / IRIN News |
Banda won the election by the narrowest of margins over Michael Sata, long-serving head of the opposition Patriotic Front (PF) party whose support is drawn more from the cities than the rural poor. Initial fears of a violent reaction subsided as international observers ruled the election as largely free and fair. The ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) has been in power since the first multi-party elections for seats in the National Assembly took place in 1991.
Mwanawasa’s presidency was respected internationally for his economic policies and his attempt to crack down on corruption, most notably in a high profile case against his former colleague and president, Frederick Chiluba. Having refused an amnesty in return for disclosure and repayment of embezzled state funds, Chiluba should finally face trial in 2009. His wife has already been imprisoned for receiving stolen goods. At less exalted levels, the Anti-Corruption Commission maintains an active casebook but struggles with the slow and poorly resourced judicial process.
During his first term, Mwanawasa appointed two committees to make recommendations for reforms of the electoral process and constitution. A draft constitution was presented in December 2005, the proposed changes aimed at rebalancing powers away from the president towards parliament. For example, new electoral rules would require the successful candidate to obtain at least 50% of votes.
After the 2006 elections, the president established a National Constitution Conference to consider the draft for eventual submission to parliament for adoption during 2009. Although the Conference purports to represent all sectors, both the Patriotic Front opposition and civil society leaders consider that it includes too many members of parliament from the ruling MMD party.
Civil society thrives: Zambia has many active non-governmental organizations and civil society groups. However, new NGO legislation proposed in 2007 suggests that the government is uncomfortable with the criticism that it draws from civil society groups.
Human Rights in Zambia
|
| Journalists training in Zambia © Yese Williams Bwalya |
Examples of gaps between Zambian law and international commitments include the treatment of women and refugees. Gender inequality is widespread. Zambia's constitutional and legal systems in the last 40 years have not addressed women's exposure to domestic violence, discrimination and lack of property rights. The government recognises these problems and created in 2000 a Division for Gender in Development within the cabinet and committed itself to mainstreaming gender in all the sectors of society.
With no fewer than seven shared national borders, Zambia is very exposed to the consequences of social instability in Africa. At one time in the 1990s, it hosted over 300,000 refugees, mainly Congolese and Angolans. No Zambian citizenship is offered and the UN Refugee Agency lobbies the government for new laws to meet the terms of the 1951 Convention. Meanwhile the restoration of relative calm in Angola and the DRC has enabled voluntary repatriation to reduce remaining refugees to under 100,000, although these may be boosted by an unknown number of Zimbabweans.
The OneWorld Zambia Guide was first published in December 2006 with a text written by Volunteer Editor Akke Jeanne Klerk.
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