Eritrea: what will happen next?

04 January 2006

Eritrea and Ethiopia

Tired Eritrea expelled 180 UNMEE military and civilian staff and refused to meet UN Under Secretary-General for Peace-keeping Operations Jean-Marie Guehenno and UN Military Advisor Lt. Gen. Radhir Kumar Mehta despite their stay in country for four days. "I think it is unfortunate because I think it would be good to engage, to be able to discuss the issues," Guehenno told a press conference in Asmara. This is the most serious step Eritrea has ever taken against guest UN peacekeepers patrolling their border with Ethiopia for the past five years. Earlier, Eritrean authorities have imposed ban on UNMEE helicopters and restricted the movement of UNMEE patrols. "Our capacities have been reduced by the obstacles that have been put in place," he said.

To expel categorically UNMEE staff belonging to US, Canada, Russia and EU member states and giving 10 days notice to leave the country

UN peacekeepers have failed in bringing sustainable peace in the region

is a humiliating step but, if we go into reality, it could be justified as a silent agitation. After the five years of their deployment and at the cost of billions of dollars, UN peacekeepers have failed in bringing sustainable peace in the region. The border situation remains "tense and potentially volatile" in their (UNMEE) own words.

The two nations fought a deadly two and half year war from 1998-2000 that ended with the Algiers Agreements on 12 December 2000 that was witnessed by UN, US, EU, and 53-nation AU bloc. The dispute was however legally resolved on 13 April 2002 when Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission (EEBC) at Algiers awarded Badme village to Eritrea as its integral part. Eritrea eagerly waited for demarcation and repeatedly requested the international community to implement the court decision but to no avail.

The international community never put appropriate pressure or used its influence to convince Ethiopia to abide by the Commission decision except

the Badme decision was openly violated by Ethiopia and became root cause of all the subsequent instability

some sweet meetings, and issuing some cool and formal statements. Perhaps that side enjoyed closer ties with UN and western nations than Eritrea. Whatsoever may be the reason; the Badme decision was openly violated by Ethiopia and became root cause of all the subsequent instability and stalemate in region which has forced Eritrea to take extreme steps. Expelling the UNMEE staff sends a message of panic to all parties to look into the matter more seriously and responsibly and avert possible calamity. The AU and the EU expressed grave concern and said their organizations would continue to seek a peaceful resolution of the situation. "This crisis is a serious one and is a matter of concern to AU leaders," said Djinnit, head of the AU peacekeeping arm, in Addis Ababa.

The tension is continuously growing on the border; troops are already assembled on both sides and the international community is as yet

But can war return Badme to Eritrea and give lasting peace in the region? The answer is surely no

ineffective in finding a solution; Eritrea is unwilling to wait indefinitely whilst Ethiopia is reluctant to give back Badme, a standoff which makes war inevitable. But can war return Badme to Eritrea and give lasting peace in the region? The answer is surely no. Nothing will be gained in that way except bloodshed and upheaval. These two desperately poor nations that already fought a thirty year long war, one of longest in world, will face more economic hardships and human sufferings than ever before.

Eritrea - Ethiopia border

As an alternative to war, Eritrea has opted to express its dissatisfaction with UNMEE. Unfortunately the UN, instead of looking into grievances and helping Eritrea, has threatened to impose sanctions if Eritrea does not lift the ban on UNMEE flights and free patrolling. Eritrea has preferred to expell UN staff and refuse to meet its top officials, making the situation even more delicate. Taking advantage of this humiliation, Ethiopia has sought to strengthen its own relations with the international community. Whatever happens, the ultimate sufferers will be the common poor masses.

Ethiopia has openly rejected the Commissions decision on Badme, and if the UN cannot bend it to obey law, there remain no moral

It demonstrates that the international community is either ineffective or not seriously interested in solving the problem

grounds to press Eritrea to rethink a decision that is legally final and binding. It demonstrates that the international community is either ineffective or not seriously interested in solving the problem. The failure to find compromise creates the risk that Eritrea may initiate war to take back its territory under the occupation of Ethiopia. If Ethiopia retaliated, the consequences again would be dire. "If the parties do not manage to return to diplomacy, the Security Council will have to look at the implications," Guehenno warned.

If the UN feels humiliated by Eritreas unacceptable actions and withdraws its mission, the grounds are then open for both countries to engage in another war. "It is being undertaken in the face of the unacceptable actions and decisions that have been made recently by Eritrea," Guehenno said, we are really on the cross roads. The potential consequences are clear - bloodshed and suffering in immense proportion on both sides of the border.

If instead the UN does not withdraw its mission and stays another 10 years, extending mission after mission, as it did in past five years, the matter will remain there and no progress would be achieved in any direction except some temporary relief and eyewash.

There remains only one option which is to respect the rule of law. The international community must use its influence and act responsibly and impartially to see Ethiopia obey the Commissions decision, and return the territory under dispute. That would be a simple path to grant a lasting peace and prosperity in the region.

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This is an edited version of an article which was first published in Eri 24

Dr.M.Ashaq Raza is Volunteer Editor for the OneWorld Eritrea Guide