Seismic changes in global power

By Daniel Nelson

The failure of Israels attack on Hizbollah may have an unexpected and hugely important effect that most pundits have overlooked.

Yes, it has strengthened Hizbollahs standing in the region, particularly in Palestine, though not universally some Lebanese blame the movement for provoking Israels attack and the ensuing destruction.

Yes, it will provoke re-thinking in Arab capitals, as governments consider the scorn incurred by their own ineffectiveness in dealing with Israel.

Yes, as is argued elsewhere in OneWorlds Special Report on Lebanon, the defeat may mark the end of Israels absolute power of deterrence. That, in turn, may encourage a variety of military forces prepared to harass Israel.

Yes, defeat will result in policy and personnel changes in Israeli politics and the military, as blame falls on individuals and parties.

But there is also a possibility that the assault on Hizbollah may trigger a re-think in Washingtons relations with Israel.

There will be no immediate change. Massive US support for Israel will continue. But countries have permanent interests, not permanent allies, and part of Israels reality is its military power not just in terms of winning battles, but also in weapons development, in intelligence, in flexibility. A loss of Israeli military invulnerability changes the politics of the region. The US, like every other country, has to accommodate that change.

It is too early to guess how such a change will play out. It may be delayed: the Lebanese army will not disarm Hizbollah, so at this very moment both Hizbollah and the Israeli top brass will be planning the next round of fighting. And next time around, Israel will try to regain its lost military supremacy.

Nevertheless, the US State Department, now and in the coming years, will have to factor this defeat into US thinking. If Israels military power is no longer untrammelled, Washington will want to adjust its policies and find new ways of upholding its own military might in the region. And that could mean redefining its friends and enemies in the Middle East.