Sudan peace breakdown 'would be devastating'

Breakdown of the CPA Agreement will be Devastating for Sudan

Civilians in all regions of Sudan face a serious risk of renewed violence and conflict if the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) fails, says a new Chatham House report.

The CPA was signed on 9 January 2005 by Sudan's National Congress Party-led central government and the Southern-based Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army, ending more than two decades of war. The conflict killed and displaced millions of people.

On the fourth anniversary of its signing, the CPA is at a critical juncture. Elections are due in 2009, and they will set the stage for a referendum on self-determination for Southern Sudan in 2011.

A breakdown in the CPA would have devastating effects for all Sudan. Many decades of mismanaged and unequal development have left this country facing a serious risk of fragmentation. The CPA's proposals for a fairer division of wealth and power could stop this fragmentation. If they are not implemented, Sudan could see a replication of the crisis in Darfur across the country.

Against the Gathering Storm: Securing Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement, by Dr Edward Thomas, calls on international supporters of the CPA to engage urgently, thoughtfully and multilaterally with the CPA process.

The crisis in Darfur and the possible indictment of President Omar al-Bashir have forced Bashir's National Congress Party to re-examine domestic alliances and consider previously unpalatable deals, outside CPA processes. A reversal of progress now will bring heavy future costs.

Stalling or a reversal in implementation would be a tragic outcome for the CPA, which, despite its flaws, remains the most thoughtful, considered and far-reaching document in Sudanese history. Its ideas for sharing wealth and power offer a model for other countries in the Horn of Africa.

NOTES

Edward Thomas holds a PhD in the History of Sudan and has published extensively on Sudanese politics. He has worked for the United Nations in Sudan, and with UNICEF in Khartoum as a child protection adviser.