Cyclone Sidr © IRIN News

If climate change proves to be the force that shapes the 21st century, then Bangladesh offers an early vision of our future. Its land is crossed with waterways, defensive dykes and structures; roads and houses are constructed above ground level; early warning systems and emergency shelters have already protected tens of thousands of lives from Cyclone Sidr. The government has published a 10 year action plan which refers to its “pro-poor, climate resilient and low-carbon development strategy”. It plans to establish a “climate change cell” in every ministry and has set up a National Climate Change Fund into which generous bilateral donations have already been made towards the ambitious $5 billion target.

With one of the lowest per capita levels of energy consumption in the world, Bangladesh is a major point of reference for the injustice of climate change. Although alarmist media projections are typically based on a rise in sea level well beyond the worst case 2100 scenario outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), nevertheless there is a real risk that significant land mass will be lost, forcing the migration of large numbers of people. In a climate pincer movement from the north, retreating Himalayan glaciers create great uncertainty in the management of dozens of rivers that flow through Bangladesh into the Bay of Bengal. Shorter but more severe monsoons, longer periods of drought, and more violent tropical storms, complete the roll call of climate predictions for Bangladesh. Cyclone Sidr killed 3,500 people and destroyed over half a million homes in 2007.

The impact on food security, over and above the loss of productive land by sea and river erosion, is the principal concern. The IPCC has predicted a small drop in rice yields by 2050 but over 30% for wheat. New crop varieties will be tested and the challenge of finding new livelihoods is already familiar to many households.

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