Poverty in Egypt

Rural kids, Egypt © Jeff Black

The official prognosis is that Egypt is likely to attain all of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs); indeed the first Goal to halve the 1990 level of extreme poverty (based on the standard UN threshold of $1 per day) has already been achieved. However, a distinctly fragile profile of poverty reduction emerges from the Egypt Human Development Report (HDR) published in 2008 which observes that the benefits of the country’s modernised economy have largely bypassed the provinces of Upper Egypt and the rural regions of Lower Egypt. This widening inequality has stalled progress against the broader poverty line (the income necessary to provide both food and non-food needs) which is set at just below $1.50 per day and which now at 19.6% has shown no lasting improvement since 2000 – and only modest advance since it stood at 24.3% in the base MDG year of 1990.

The HDR locates this poverty in the informal part of the economy – households dependent on small farms or related self-employment – which miss out on rising wages and social insurance schemes. Estimating that this sector accounts for 36% of the workforce, the Report also suggests that it absorbs the strain of new labour emerging from a sharply rising population, further diluting income.

Egyptian school © Unicef

Educational access has improved; net primary school enrolment is now considered to be around 95% and Egypt’s youth literacy rate has climbed from 61% to 85% since 1990. However, resources have not kept pace with increasing numbers so that the quality of state education is regarded as very poor and achieving the MDG for universal literacy is far from certain. Many households are unable to pay fees charged for meaningful tuition and 3 million children in Egypt, the majority of them girls, have either dropped out of school or never attended.

Food Security in Egypt

Egypt is able to grow barely half of its demand for wheat and is the world’s largest importer of the crop. The country is therefore seriously exposed to the dramatic rise in world food prices, the latent threat to human development lying in the bulge of over 20% of the population which hovers just above the poverty line, already spending a large proportion of household income on food. The government has responded by holding the subsidised price of baladi bread which is available to all but normally shunned by the middle classes due to its lower quality. The inevitable increase in demand has led to shortages and, with the public mood becoming volatile, the army has been requisitioned to bake additional supplies. This bread subsidy costs the government almost $3.5 billion pa. The ration card scheme which subsidises essential foodstuffs such as rice and sugar has been extended to an additional 17 million people so that more than half of the population is now eligible. Exports of rice have been banned in order to protect supplies.

Although population growth of over 2% pa is a factor to consider in Egypt’s long term food security, it is the dominant and unforgiving desert terrain which limits production. The title of the government department responsible for farming – the Ministry of Agriculture and Reclamation – signifies Egypt’s belief in the potential of reclaiming land for agriculture. Major development plans are in place to progress towards food sufficiency by this means.
Climate Change in Egypt

Nile at Aswan © Jeff Black

No Ministry exists to address the impact of climate change in Egypt, nor even an agency to coordinate the country’s response. There appears to be a lack of detailed research into potential scenarios and few plans for adaptation. Yet most global studies are quick to point out that much of the Nile delta lies below sea level and precious arable land must be vulnerable to salt intrusion, even for conservative predictions of rising sea levels. One estimate suggests that a one meter rise in sea level would displace over 10% of Egypt’s population.

Upstream uncertainties create a potential pincer impact on the Nile. Opinion appears divided as to whether evaporation caused by rising temperatures will reduce the flow of the river or whether increased rainfall will replenish it. As the Nile provides 95% of Egypt’s freshwater needs, the importance of more confident predictions cannot be overstated.
Health in Egypt

Young Egyptian girls © Centre for Development and Population Activities

Improvements in maternal health and child mortality rates are one of Egypt’s development success-stories. Since 1970, the child mortality rate has dropped dramatically, from 157 per 1000 births, to 26 per 1000 in 2005, and maternal mortality rates have seen a similar decline. Further progress to achieve the health-related MDGs faces two very different obstacles. Firstly the poor level of government funding for healthcare is increasingly placing patients in a position where they are obliged to pay for treatment. Secondly, the state of sanitation in Egypt has been exposed as a serious health risk; a table of the “worst places in the world for sanitation” compiled in 2007 by the UK agency WaterAid lists Egypt in 16th place. The 2008 HDR concedes that, under a revised definition of safe sanitation, only 24% of Egypt’s rural population have access, far behind the MDG target.

Whilst the prevalence of HIV/AIDS is less than 0.1%, Egypt’s attitude to the virus remains trapped in a 1980s timewarp. In 2007, a group of men were sentenced to prison terms for homosexual conduct, the arrests and subsequent appalling treatment in custody apparently triggered by disclosure that one of the men was living with HIV. The case has exposed how poorly Egypt is equipped to deal with any increase in infections. HIV is virtually excluded from medical training and a survey showed that only 6% of women in Egypt understand how the virus is transmitted.
The Economy in Egypt

Cairo street trader © Jeff Black

Funds available for health and education are squeezed out by the clumsy profile of Egypt’s public spending which is dominated by just three items – subsidies on food and fuel which benefit the rich as much as the poor, the salaries of a bloated civil service and interest on government debt. Even the trade minister has acknowledged that 75% of the population has seen no benefit from recent years of economic growth. Yet the cabinet of Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif has been praised since 2004 for its pursuit of neo-liberal economic reforms.

In early 2008 the government conceded a 30% payrise for the civil service, finance by reducing subsidies on fuel. The inflationary spiral is provoking unprecedented public protest and the government will be hoping that booming revenues from Egypt’s natural gas reserves will help to maintain social and economic stability.
Politics in Egypt

Hosni Mubarak, president of Egypt © Radio Netherlands Wereldomroep

Strong authoritarian government has been the unchanging political diet of the Egyptian people. The US administration's continued support of the government of President Mohammed Hosni Mubarak, despite its abuses, is in no small part driven by fear of the Islamist bogeyman – the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). Despite being officially proscribed, the MB is the next most important political group in the country after the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP). Popular support for the MB is centred on its efficient delivery of social programmes, in contrast to the government's failure to stamp out widespread corruption which acts as a brake on poverty reduction.

International pressure for genuine democratic choice triggered NDP efforts to repackage the 2005 presidential elections by permitting a candidate to oppose Mubarak for the first time. Characterised by violence and intimidation, the polls were widely criticised as being corrupt, producing a predictable 88% win for the president. But parliamentary elections saw a strong showing from MB-backed independent candidates who won an unprecedented 88 seats out of the 444 contested for the People's Assembly.

Minaret, Egypt © Jeff Black

These latter results have prompted the Mubarak regime into a series of measures targeting the ability of the MB to operate in Egypt. Amendments to the constitution pushed through by referendum in March 2007 forbid political activity based on religion whilst compelling independent presidential candidates to win prior endorsement at local government level. To render such endorsement impossible, the government has refused the registration of 90% of MB–supported candidates for the 2008 municipal elections and arrested over 800 activists. The NDP fielded over 50,000 candidates against a few hundred supported by the Brotherhood.

Mubarak and his party defend their actions by alleging that the goal of the Muslim Brotherhood is to impose an Islamic state. The MB lacks democracy in its own hierarchy and its values are somewhat unclear on issues such as the role of women. For example, its members of parliament recently opposed a bill outlawing the practice of female genital mutilation on the grounds of interference with traditional culture.
NGOs and Civil Society in Egypt

Egyptian boys © Centre for Development and Population Activities

Egypt’s large number of over 20,000 NGOs cover all aspects of society, from simple community groups to internationally recognised human rights organisations. The state, however, views the sector with suspicion, fearing its potential digression into politics, fuelled perhaps by receipt of funds from foreign advocacy groups. Successive legislation has ensured that, together with professional syndicates and trade unions, NGOs have become accustomed to a high degree of state interference. High profile closures continued during 2007.

The HDR published in 2008 focuses on the role of civil society and seeks to persuade the government to adopt more positive thinking. The expertise of traditional community groups could be valuable if integrated into partnership with development programmes pursuing the MDGs. The Report also takes pains to downplay the influence of foreign funds in Egyptian civil society.
Human Rights in Egypt

Since Mubarak came to power in the aftermath of the assassination of Anwar Sadat 1981, Egypt has been governed by Emergency Laws, which allow for indefinite detention of suspects and restrict freedom of speech and assembly. The continued use of military and State Security courts to try civilian cases infringes the basic right to a fair trial before an independent judiciary. Before the 2005 election, President Mubarak promised that he would repeal the Emergency Laws but they have since been renewed twice and are now scheduled to remain in place until 2010. Meanwhile, key provisions are being reproduced, partly in changes to the Constitution and partly in proposed anti-terror legislation.

Cairo street demonstration © Jeff Black

Persistence of the Emergency Laws condemns unknown numbers - Amnesty International suggests 18,000 - of pro-democracy activists, Islamists and regime opponents to prolonged detention. Frequent reports of torture and intimidation emanate from Egypt's overcrowded jails and the country has yet to reply to a request by the UN special rapporteur on torture for an official visit, mocking the country's election to the new UN Human Rights Council in 2007.

Sudanese Refugees Camped out in Cairo © Fahamu - Networks for Social Justice

Egypt offers no processing capacity for asylum-seekers, a task which is left to the UN Refugee Agency whose own limited resources recognise a total of just under 45,000 refugees, mostly from Sudan, Iraq and Somalia. Less formal estimates believe there may be as many as 500,000 refugees struggling in difficult conditions in Egypt’s cities. The government’s decision in 2008 to deport asylum-seekers from Eritrea – where they face almost certain torture – has attracted strong protest from the UN Refugee Agency.
Information and Media in Egypt

The "state of emergency" remains the justification for heavy press censorship, and a culture of non-criticism of the state in the country's major media organs, which in any case are mostly state-owned. July 2006 saw a widespread strike by independent and opposition newspapers in protest against new laws governing the press - which entail jail terms for writers who question the financial integrity of public figures. Egypt remains one of the few countries that regularly imprisons journalists and bloggers for what they write, despite an election promise by Mubarak that this situation would end.

The networking power of new media technologies scored a triumph in 2007 when police arrogantly circulated amongst themselves a film of a torture session recorded by mobile phone camera. The clip found its way on to the Internet and finally to YouTube, leaving the embarrassed Egyptian government with no option but to convict the police officials involved.
Conflict in Egypt

Egypt is at the heart of the delicate balance of war and peace in the Middle East. It has fought two wars with Israel but, alone with Jordan, has signed a peace agreement with the Jewish state. This background places Egypt in an ideal position to act as mediator in contemporary regional conflicts; for the same reason deflecting US overtures to make its aid conditional on greater democratic freedoms. Egypt is the United States' second most-favoured-nation in the Middle East after Israel, enjoying annual aid of over $1.7. Egyptian mediation was most recently demonstrated in the 2008 truce between Israel and Hamas when tensions in the Gaza Strip flared out of control. The January 2008 breach in the Rafah crossing created an especially difficult quandary for Egypt; on the one hand under pressure from its own people to help the Palestinians whilst on the other accused by Israeli interests of allowing weapons to be smuggled into Gaza.

Egypt is one of the last countries in the world to have an outstanding programme of mine clearance dating from World War II. A vast coastal strip in the vicinity of Alamein is believed to contain over 20% of the world’s unexploded ordnance. The significance for Egypt is the potential recovery of extensive arable land and the current food crisis may finally prompt the political will to clear the ancient minefields.



The OneWorld Egypt Guide was first published in December 2004 with a text written by Volunteer Editor Jeff Black

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