Eritrea guide
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| © New Internationalist |
Frustration at the failure to implement decisions over the disputed border with Ethiopia has driven Eritrea to an isolationist policy. The country appears determined to fall out with international donors, the World Food Programme, the UN, and now the United States. Apart from the imminent risk of renewed fighting, the government is also subjecting its long-suffering people to an experiment with food security which to external observers appears at best to be a gamble.
updated December 2008
Poverty in Eritrea
Where armies are assembled on either side of a disputed border, the countries involved are unlikely to allocate high priority to pursuit of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The Eritrean government concedes that resources diverted to "national security" have acted as a brake on human development. Little data is available to reflect events since 2003, at which point 66% of the population was below the poverty line, measured as the value of basic food and essential non-food items. The MDG baseline poverty rate in the early 1990s was 53%.
During 2007 the government published a progress report for the MDGs which acknowledged that Goals for poverty, universal education and the environment are very unlikely to be achieved. Net enrolment for primary education was 72% in 2006 but the rate for girls was just 44%. Partly because schools are short of classrooms and teacher retention is compromised by inadequate pay levels, the completion rate is only 50%. Poor standards of sanitation are no help - Unicef has assessed that only 1.5% of people in rural areas have access to safe sanitation and only 58% to a source of clean water.
The MDG report estimates the cost of meeting the Goals to be $1.5 billion in the period to 2015. Unfortunately, prospects for aid funding are at an all-time low, as government relations with UN and western agencies have progressively deteriorated. The reasons are many but include Eritrea's failure to finalise its Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) - a critical tool for donors - and its reluctance to address concerns about governance and human rights.
New taxes and regulations have therefore made life impossible for some international NGOs and many major groups have been told to leave the country. Only a handful of the most resilient humanitarian agencies remain active and bilateral aid prospects are largely limited to China, Iran and some Arab countries.
Food Security in Eritrea
The consequent lack of reliable humanitarian data is of most concern in the context of food security. Much of Eritrea is semi-arid, weather patterns are unpredictable and some of the most fertile regions are minefields. About 80% of the population lives in rural areas, the majority being poor subsistence farmers and nomadic herdsmen. Even in years of favourable rainfall, crop yields meet no more than 60%-70% of the country's needs. It is unclear whether the government has been able to purchase food imports during 2008 when prices have been rocketing.
Eritrea has a long history of droughts and, after the failure of seasonal rainfall every year in the period 2001-2004, assistance from the world community was mobilised to feed more than 2 million people, two-thirds of its population. With the feeding programme in full swing in 2005, Eritrea embarked on a radical change of strategy. Citing the dangers of dependency on food aid, the government launched a philosophy of self-sufficiency, backed by a programme of modernisation of agriculture.
Supplies belonging to the World Food Programme were confiscated and a "work-for-food" programme installed in its place. The situation for those unable to work is uncertain. Three successive years of good rains have prevented catastrophe but a 2007 UN report estimated that 70%-80% of people were short of food essentials. Harvests in 2008 have been less favourable and the government has appealed for a spirit of sharing resources. The reality appears to be that food is in short supply, being sold in government shops in far from generous rations.
Climate Change in Eritrea
The government's isolationist food strategy was adopted before the impact of climate change on Africa had reached its current high state of alert. Eritrea is potentially one of the most vulnerable countries in the continent, as is made clear in the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) published in 2007. The prospect of increased variability in rainfall patterns, more frequent drought, and rising sea levels (Eritrea has many low-lying islands) acting on a primitive system of agriculture surely calls for more fundamental investment than the steps of basic good practice identified in the NAPA report.
Unusually, the science of climate modelling is unable to provide helpful projections for these changing weather patterns in Eritrea. Whilst there is consensus that the temperature is rising at a faster rate than the global average, scientific models do not agree about the future impact this may have on the volume or intensity of rainfall.
Health and HIV/AIDS in Eritrea
In more settled times through the 1990s with peace holding firm, Eritrea did demonstrate its ability to implement pro-poor policies and to be an attractive destination for development agencies. The benefits can be seen in the significant improvement in health indicators which do appear to be more in line with MDG targets.
Where donor relationships with the government have survived, the results of sustained programmes such as vaccination for measles have been encouraging. This is particularly true in the fight against malaria; child mortality in Eritrea is improving thanks to the large scale distribution of bednets by the government. The malaria rate has fallen dramatically, more so than elsewhere in Africa.
It is also fortunate that Eritrea has developed reasonable capacity to combat HIV/AIDS; the country experiences relatively low prevalence of 2.4%. However, the results of a survey in 2007 have not yet been published and a combination of adverse circumstances - extreme poverty and thousands of soldiers away from their homes - creates risks which may be difficult to control. In 2007 antiretroviral treatment was reaching only 24% of those in need. The National Strategic Plan aims for treatment to rise to 80% by 2010.
The Economy in Eritrea
Eritrea has adopted in principle the full panoply of free market disciplines recommended by the IMF - but these remain somewhat superfluous in an economy which is largely on a military footing, and where key businesses are owned by the ruling PFDJ. The army itself, over 300,000 strong, is the largest in Africa in absolute terms and the largest in the world measured as a percentage of population.
The continuing devaluation of currency since independence creates major problems for ordinary people in Eritrea through ever-increasing prices and scarcity of daily commodities. The government is obliged to sell these goods at subsidised rates through its own stores and shops. The development of offshore oil, fishing, and tourism are the main hopes for the economy to escape its burden of debt and dependence on aid and overseas remittances. It is also clear that the country hopes to develop its relationship with China to boost infrastructure, trade and investment.
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| Woman selling corn in Godief, Asmara © Dr. M. Ashaq Raza |
During 2007 the government published a progress report for the MDGs which acknowledged that Goals for poverty, universal education and the environment are very unlikely to be achieved. Net enrolment for primary education was 72% in 2006 but the rate for girls was just 44%. Partly because schools are short of classrooms and teacher retention is compromised by inadequate pay levels, the completion rate is only 50%. Poor standards of sanitation are no help - Unicef has assessed that only 1.5% of people in rural areas have access to safe sanitation and only 58% to a source of clean water.
The MDG report estimates the cost of meeting the Goals to be $1.5 billion in the period to 2015. Unfortunately, prospects for aid funding are at an all-time low, as government relations with UN and western agencies have progressively deteriorated. The reasons are many but include Eritrea's failure to finalise its Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) - a critical tool for donors - and its reluctance to address concerns about governance and human rights.
New taxes and regulations have therefore made life impossible for some international NGOs and many major groups have been told to leave the country. Only a handful of the most resilient humanitarian agencies remain active and bilateral aid prospects are largely limited to China, Iran and some Arab countries.
Food Security in Eritrea
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| Mercy Corps school feeding program in Eritrea |
Eritrea has a long history of droughts and, after the failure of seasonal rainfall every year in the period 2001-2004, assistance from the world community was mobilised to feed more than 2 million people, two-thirds of its population. With the feeding programme in full swing in 2005, Eritrea embarked on a radical change of strategy. Citing the dangers of dependency on food aid, the government launched a philosophy of self-sufficiency, backed by a programme of modernisation of agriculture.
Supplies belonging to the World Food Programme were confiscated and a "work-for-food" programme installed in its place. The situation for those unable to work is uncertain. Three successive years of good rains have prevented catastrophe but a 2007 UN report estimated that 70%-80% of people were short of food essentials. Harvests in 2008 have been less favourable and the government has appealed for a spirit of sharing resources. The reality appears to be that food is in short supply, being sold in government shops in far from generous rations.
Climate Change in Eritrea
The government's isolationist food strategy was adopted before the impact of climate change on Africa had reached its current high state of alert. Eritrea is potentially one of the most vulnerable countries in the continent, as is made clear in the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) published in 2007. The prospect of increased variability in rainfall patterns, more frequent drought, and rising sea levels (Eritrea has many low-lying islands) acting on a primitive system of agriculture surely calls for more fundamental investment than the steps of basic good practice identified in the NAPA report.
Unusually, the science of climate modelling is unable to provide helpful projections for these changing weather patterns in Eritrea. Whilst there is consensus that the temperature is rising at a faster rate than the global average, scientific models do not agree about the future impact this may have on the volume or intensity of rainfall.
Health and HIV/AIDS in Eritrea
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| HIV/AIDS counselling on World AIDS Day 2007, Eritrea © Dr.M.Ashaq Raza |
Where donor relationships with the government have survived, the results of sustained programmes such as vaccination for measles have been encouraging. This is particularly true in the fight against malaria; child mortality in Eritrea is improving thanks to the large scale distribution of bednets by the government. The malaria rate has fallen dramatically, more so than elsewhere in Africa.
It is also fortunate that Eritrea has developed reasonable capacity to combat HIV/AIDS; the country experiences relatively low prevalence of 2.4%. However, the results of a survey in 2007 have not yet been published and a combination of adverse circumstances - extreme poverty and thousands of soldiers away from their homes - creates risks which may be difficult to control. In 2007 antiretroviral treatment was reaching only 24% of those in need. The National Strategic Plan aims for treatment to rise to 80% by 2010.
The Economy in Eritrea
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| Vegetable Market in Asmara © Dr. M. Ashaq Raza |
The continuing devaluation of currency since independence creates major problems for ordinary people in Eritrea through ever-increasing prices and scarcity of daily commodities. The government is obliged to sell these goods at subsidised rates through its own stores and shops. The development of offshore oil, fishing, and tourism are the main hopes for the economy to escape its burden of debt and dependence on aid and overseas remittances. It is also clear that the country hopes to develop its relationship with China to boost infrastructure, trade and investment.
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