Poverty in Ethiopia

Schoolchildren in Adwa, Ethiopia © Niamh Burke / UNESCO / ASPnet

With a population of almost 80 million and a position close to the bottom of the UNDP Human Development Index, Ethiopia’s progress towards the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) could potentially bolster the broader measure of poverty reduction in sub-Saharan Africa. Some spectacular results have been achieved, especially in education where primary school enrolment has increased from 37% in 1996 to 91% in 2005, with over 2,000 new schools built since 2002. And in the space of just 2-3 years, the government has been successful in distributing bednets to almost all of the 10 million households at risk of malaria, the leading cause of death in Ethiopia.

Less encouragingly, the transformation in structure and headline performance of Ethiopia’s economy over the last 15 years, praised by its neo-liberal institutional sponsors, has so far failed to bring the MDG poverty target within reach. Based on a national poverty line which lies between the international benchmarks of $1 and $2 per day, the rate of poverty fell from 44.2% in 2000 (the baseline year for Ethiopia) to 36.5% in 2005, with similar percentages for the proportion of people experiencing hunger. Further reduction is very sensitive to the fate of the concentration of households living just above this poverty line – over 77% of the population falls below the $2 per day threshold.

An Ethiopian focus group discusses the pilot programmes © Population Media Center

Government strategy for the period 2005-2010 is laid out in its Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty in Ethiopia (PASDEP). Progress reports consistently call for increases in the amount and consistency of development aid (as distinct from emergency or military assistance). One estimate puts the funding gap at more than $1 billion pa, a figure of similar order to existing total aid. Even allowing for the generous debt relief awarded to Ethiopia in 2004 and 2005, the improbability of gaining such additional support dampens expectations of achieving the Goals by 2015.

Food Security in Ethiopia

Oxfam distributes food in Ethiopia © Crispin Hughes / Oxfam Great Britain

Until the key to food security can be found, the majority of Ethiopians will remain locked in the poverty trap. 85% of households depend on agriculture, including about 10% herding livestock, all working on land of insecure and inadequate tenure in a sector unaccountably deprived of investment. Crops are therefore almost entirely rainfed in a country synonymous with the ravages of drought. Population growth of over 2% pa creates added pressure.

Over 7 million people are classed as chronically food insecure, largely in the highlands region where drought is most unrelenting. A further 10 million are identified as prone to drought. The first category is assisted by the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) which provides cash in return for labour on community projects and food for those unable to work. In addition the government has grasped the nettle of a resettlement programme which aims to move over 2 million people to more productive lands. Although admired for their innovation, both these strategies are fraught with difficulty and their sustainability is questionable.

Food distribution in Ethiopia © Juan Carlos Tomasi / Médicos Sin Fronteras - España

2008 illustrates the volatile nature of food security in Ethiopia. In January the World Food Programme (WFP) and the Food and Agriculture Organization jointly published a positive assessment which applauded four consecutive “bumper” harvests, predicted a satisfactory 2008 harvest and even held out the prospect of grain exports. The report implied that the core aims of the government’s Food Security Programme - increased land under cultivation, a strategic reserve for emergencies and less aid dependency – were all coming to fruition. Yet by June, the world’s media featured images of emaciated children and dying livestock, supplemented by flashbacks to the 1984 famine. The rains had failed once again, government reserves had expired leading to an emergency appeal for $300 million to assist 4.6 million people, whilst the WFP was unable to fund or supply more than a month of emergency aid.

The reality may be more complex. Whilst drought has certainly affected what the government calls “pockets” of the south and east of the country, the dramatic rise in food prices has also disrupted response mechanisms during the June-September peak hunger season. The price of the staple teff grain has doubled within a year so that selling livestock and other assets fails to raise enough funds, cash payments under the PSNP are no longer sufficient, a new category of urban food poverty has emerged and the government struggles to prevent unauthorised exports. With two annual harvests and rainfall seasons to track, a government touchy about its aid dependency and the global media thirsting for disaster scenarios, assessment of food crisis in Ethiopia is never going to be straightforward.
Climate Change in Ethiopia

Drought at Denane, Ethiopia © Rachel Stabb / Oxfam Great Britain

Whatever its failings, the Ethiopian government has done nothing to deserve the uncertain fate that climate change will impose on a social infrastructure that has virtually no capacity to adapt. It is the prospect of yet more uncertainty in patterns of rainfall that threatens to undermine the basis for current food security strategies. In assessing a shortlist of simple projects to respond to climate change, the government’s National Adaptation Programme of Action identifies as its top priority the innovative idea of insurance against losses caused by drought. The prospect of offloading risk to financial institutions from countries responsible for climate change has already been explored in Ethiopia.
Health in Ethiopia

Family collecting water from an Oxfam well in Hadawe, Ethiopia © Rachel Stabb / Oxfam Great Britain

The UN Human Development Report 2007/08 offered a telling illustration of how climate change will impact the poor. Pointing to the forced reduction in diet of the mother, the Report observes that “children aged five or less are ..36%.. more likely to be malnourished if they were born during a drought. For Ethiopia that translates into some 2 million additional malnourished children in 2005.” In that year, 38% of children under 5 years were indeed underweight, with heightened risk of illness, especially those related to nutritional deficiency and poor hygiene. The specialist UK charity WaterAid says that efforts to achieve the Goal for water and sanitation are “way off track” with access in rural areas still just over 40%. 70,000 latrines will need to be built every month between now and 2015 to meet the sanitation target.

Due to a continued exodus of trained personnel, there are fewer than 2,000 doctors in Ethiopia, the ratio of one per 43,000 people being one of the lowest in the world. The government has completed the training of 17,500 out of a planned total of 30,000 Health Extension Workers to bridge the gap. Nevertheless, the proportion of births attended by skilled personnel was only 16% in 2005 and the rate of maternal mortality – 673 deaths for every 100,000 births - is exceptionally high.

Ethiopian children orphaned by AIDS © World Health Organization

The fight against HIV/AIDS has made more encouraging progress. Prevalence and incidence rates have been stable for a number of years at just over 2% and 0.3% respectively. There has been a major increase in the number of centres offering testing, preventative and treatment services as part of the Plan of Action for Universal Access by 2010. Provision has so far been made for about 35% of those requiring antiretroviral treatment although concern has been expressed that a quarter of the beneficiaries are allowing the treatment to lapse. Whilst generous funding has been provided by the US PEPFAR scheme and the Global Fund, there remains a significant funding gap between their grants and the estimated cost of achieving universal access.


The OneWorld Ethiopia Guide was first published in May 2005 with a text written by Volunteer Editor Mahlet Yifru

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