Until the key to food security can be found, the majority of Ethiopians will remain locked in the poverty trap. 85% of households depend on agriculture, including about 10% herding livestock, all working on land of insecure and inadequate tenure in a sector unaccountably deprived of investment. Crops are therefore almost entirely rainfed in a country synonymous with the ravages of drought. Population growth of over 2% pa creates added pressure.

© Crispin Hughes / Oxfam Great Britain

Over 7 million people are classed as chronically food insecure, largely in the highlands region where drought is most unrelenting. A further 10 million are identified as prone to drought. The first category is assisted by the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) which provides cash in return for labour on community projects and food for those unable to work. In addition the government has grasped the nettle of a resettlement programme which aims to move over 2 million people to more productive lands. Although admired for their innovation, both these strategies are fraught with difficulty and their sustainability is questionable.

2008 illustrates the volatile nature of food security in Ethiopia. In January the World Food Programme (WFP) and the Food and Agriculture Organization jointly published a positive assessment which applauded four consecutive “bumper” harvests, predicted a satisfactory 2008 harvest and even held out the prospect of grain exports. The report implied that the core aims of the government’s Food Security Programme - increased land under cultivation, a strategic reserve for emergencies and less aid dependency – were all coming to fruition. Yet by June, the world’s media featured images of emaciated children and dying livestock, supplemented by flashbacks to the 1984 famine. The rains had failed once again, government reserves had expired leading to an emergency appeal for $300 million to assist 4.6 million people, whilst the WFP was unable to fund or supply more than a month of emergency aid.

The reality may be more complex. Whilst drought has certainly affected what the government calls “pockets” of the south and east of the country, the dramatic rise in food prices has also disrupted response mechanisms during the June-September peak hunger season. The price of the staple teff grain has doubled within a year so that selling livestock and other assets fails to raise enough funds, cash payments under the PSNP are no longer sufficient, a new category of urban food poverty has emerged and the government struggles to prevent unauthorised exports. With two annual harvests and rainfall seasons to track, a government touchy about its aid dependency and the global media thirsting for disaster scenarios, assessment of food crisis in Ethiopia is never going to be straightforward.

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