Food security concerns illustrate how climate change has thrown policymakers into disarray. As recently as 2006, progress reports on malnutrition published by UN agencies made no reference to climate change. Yet the formal scientific reports published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007 painted an alarming picture for Africa in which “for even small temperature increases of 1-2 degrees….. yields for rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020”. Despite this warning, climate negotiators were soon presenting a 2 degree temperature rise as an acceptable threshold.

Oxfam relief workers distribute food in Ethiopia © Crispin Hughes / Oxfam Great Britain

Climate change is also predicted to increase the intensity and frequency of drought and floods, already a serious short term cause of food insecurity. In South and East Asia, the retreat of Himalayan glaciers and disruption to the stable monsoon pattern threaten the critical water cycle around which rice production in particular has evolved. Further uncertainties surround the reaction of plant growth to the increased presence of carbon dioxide and changes in tropospheric ozone.

The UN supports the 50 Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in preparation of National Adaptation Programmes of Actions (NAPAs) and the 2007 Bali Climate Change Conference launched an Adaptation Fund which may in time support these programmes. Recognising that funding is likely to be scarce, NAPAs limit their scope to community-based low-cost options for dealing with climate variability. Within the limited capacity of poor farmers to adapt, plans include the use of alternative seed varieties, improved soil management, maintenance of water management systems and reforestation.

Interpreting long term climate probability models is highly complex and seed scientists concede problems with the concept of climate adaptation even where research funding is available. Adding to the difficulties for policymakers is the knowledge that agriculture is itself a major contributor to global warming. In particular, methane is released by cattle and in paddy rice plantations, and nitrous oxide by the action of fertilisers.

Help us to complete OneWorld Guides
Many important development issues are missing from our range of Guides. OneWorld wants to fill these gaps as part of our efforts to improve understanding of the issues faced by developing countries. We receive no funding for the production of our educational resources. Every small contribution helps!