Competing prescriptions for food security have undergone intense scrutiny in reaction to the wild oscillation in world food prices since 2007. Prices do have inherent sensitivity; the amount of food available for export is small in relation to total production whilst global reserves are believed to be less than 20% of annual consumption, the lowest level for three decades. Prices are also very sensitive to the volatile price of oil, due to the contribution of chemicals, fertiliser and transport to production costs. This volatility is exploited by speculative market traders, further exaggerating price movements.

2008 food price riots in Burkina Faso © Brahima Ouedraogo / IRIN News

Inherent price sensitivity is one thing, but when the FAO Cereal Index doubled in the year to April 2008, food security became the most pressing concern of the global community. As the world’s poorest households spend 60%-100% of their incomes on food, they have no mechanism to cope with rising prices other than to reduce the volume or nutritional quality of their consumption. The crisis reintroduced hunger to borderline rural households, created a new class of urban poor and led to food riots in 30 countries.

Despite a subsequent global market correction, food prices in developing countries have not fallen as sharply. The pattern of high price inflation since 2005 coincides with the period of greatest increase in hunger. The 2008 State of Food Insecurity in the World unequivocally blames rising food prices rather than supply.

The panic of 2008 left behind an unsettling aftermath. National interests dominated the response to a crisis which required coordinated global action. Many countries resorted to stockpiling food and blocking exports in order to keep down domestic prices. Most commentators feel that these actions made the shortages worse. Despite food summits and a new UN task force, there is little sign of a coherent global strategy for long term food security.

Instead, there are signs that major food importers have lost confidence in the market, and hence their own food security. In consequence, rich food deficit countries such as the Gulf States and South Korea are negotiating the purchase of extensive farmland in developing countries in order to secure food supplies. This disconcerting trend has been condemned as “neo-colonialism”.

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