In spite of its glossy image for tourists, the majority of Kenya's land is arid or semi-arid, the home of pastoral and nomadic people living on the margins of subsistence. 20% of the country's children aged under 5 years are underweight, a figure which has not improved since 2003. With only 18% of its territory suitable for farming, Kenya is not self-sufficient in food production and is vulnerable to unstable rain patterns. Successive years of drought up to 2006 compelled the World Food Programme (WFP) to provide support for over 3 million people. Then severe floods towards the end of 2006 affected a further 700,000, most of them cut off from help by inadequate roads. This cycle of drought and floods is known to be especially sensitive to the impact of climate change which looms in the background as a threat to food security.

Man-made shocks act on this vulnerability as much as more familiar extremes of weather. The post-election turmoil in early 2008 disrupted the March grain planting season with 50% of farmers not sufficiently prepared, according to the WFP. With signs of erratic rainfall in the arid regions and rising food prices stoking inflation, there are warnings of potential food insecurity in Kenya by the end of 2008.

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