Malawi briefings
...poverty, food and energy in a changing climate
...poverty, food and energy in a changing climate
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| Treatment for malnutrition, Malawi © IRIN News |
Malawi’s subsidy scheme for small farmers is often presented as a success story for improving food security in Africa. However, the loss of donor confidence in the domestic political environment threatens to undermine the considerable progress of recent years. There is also concern that the dominant culture of maize production is neither resilient to climate change nor appropriate for addressing rising levels of malnutrition.
updated September 2011
Poverty Reduction
The most recent Integrated Household Survey conducted in 2005 classified 52% of the population in Malawi as below the national poverty line. By 2009, according to the Welfare Monitoring Survey, a less thorough census, this poverty rate had reduced to 39%.
Based on this trend, together with evidence that Malawi’s food security strategy has been successful in resisting the economic turmoil of recent years, the 2010 progress report for the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) predicts that the 2015 target poverty rate of 27% is likely to be achieved.
This presumption of linear progression in poverty reduction is very sensitive to setbacks in the rural economy where most poverty is located. Although urban poverty is relatively low at 14%, the country’s economic base is very narrow and remains vulnerable to shocks.
A further sensitivity is Malawi’s dependence on foreign aid which finances a large proportion of poverty reduction programmes implemented by non-governmental agencies. Unfortunately, the period since the re-election of President Bingu Wa Mutharika in 2010 has unhinged the customary excellent donor relations.
A series of authoritarian measures, culminating in violent suppression of public protests in August 2011, has prompted many key donors to suspend their support. The capacity of government ministries to implement development programmes is already known to be weak. And decentralisation is constrained by the continued postponement of local elections, yet another source of donor dissatisfaction.
Meanwhile, poverty reduction programmes will be guided by the updated Malawi Growth and Development Strategy (MGDS II) which covers the period 2011-2016.
The poverty line adopted for the purposes of tracking MDG progress in Malawi is the cost of minimum food necessities plus critical non-food items. This calculation will be updated in line with the results of a new Integrated Household Survey which was due for completion in early 2011.
Food Security
Progress
In Malawi 85% of the population is dependent on agriculture. These subsistence farmers and farmworkers rely on rainfed crops, predominantly maize, the staple of the national diet.
The country’s high population growth rate of 2.8% per annum creates constant pressure to divide landholdings. This is especially true in the densely occupied south of the country where the average farm size is less than half a hectare.
In a landlocked country with one of the poorest road infrastructures in sub-Saharan Africa, imported food can be prohibitively expensive. In 2005, the lowest maize harvest in a decade left almost half of the population in need of food assistance.
From this unpromising platform, Malawi’s food security has experienced a remarkable transformation. A succession of improving maize harvests has culminated in a significant surplus in 2011, sufficient both to stock the national strategic grain reserve and to export.
Prices of the staple grain in markets are lower than in 2010 and food aid requirements should be limited to local areas suffering flood or drought.
The driver of this positive progress has been a government programme of seed and fertilizer subsidies. In defiance of the ideological inclinations of international donors and financial institutions, the Food Input Subsidy Programme provides deep discounts on improved hybrid maize seeds and fertilizer for about half of the country’s subsistence farmers.
The government has allocated 12.6% of its budget for 2011/12 to agriculture, continuing a rare record of commitment on this scale in Africa. The measure of hunger fell from 24% to 15% between 1998 and 2009, on track to achieve the MDG target of 12% by 2015.
Malawi’s apparent success in overcoming the limitations of small farmers, simultaneously stimulating poverty reduction and wider economic growth, has attracted international acclaim. Global civil society submissions to the UN MDG Summit in 2010 cited the Malawi subsidy scheme as an example of “best practice” for achieving the Goals.
Problems
Although the government shows no sign of changing course, there is rising debate about the potential shortcomings of the Malawian farm subsidy policy.
The dominant focus on maize increases the risks inherent in monoculture farming. With 94% of farms growing the crop in 2009, it is no surprise that Malawi is believed to consume more of the cereal per capita than any other country. This has a range of social and environmental consequences.
An unvarying diet of maize is a recipe for malnutrition, especially amongst young children. This may explain why the incidence of underweight children aged under five years increased from 14% to 17% in the period 2007-2009, years in which the broader measure of hunger was improving. Poor families lack awareness of the importance of a more balanced diet.
The sequence of abundant harvests is disguising the deterioration in soil quality which is the inevitable outcome of an unbroken cycle of fertilizer-rich maize planting. Leaving land fallow on small farms is impractical. The degraded soil craves ever more fertilizer.
Another known weakness of maize is its poor resilience to weather extremes of flood, drought and high temperatures. Given the generally favourable rainfall in Malawi in recent years, it is possible that the subsidy scheme has not yet been subjected to a true test of climate stress.
Importing fertilizer on this scale locks the government budget into the risk of spikes in the world price of oil. It also squeezes out spending on other vital needs of the agriculture sector. These include the provision of technical advice by extension workers and scientific research into improved varieties of local seeds.
Operational concerns inevitably focus on the effective targeting of subsidies. Village committees and headmen are tasked with identifying “vulnerable” households and some studies suggest that the process lacks impartiality. Female-headed households are a particular concern - a quarter of rural households fall into this category.
Solutions
The subsidy incentive to plant more maize also discourages crop diversification and livestock farming. This modest change of direction would make significant inroads into all of the problems associated with maize monoculture.
Livestock would introduce meat and dairy protein into food markets, as would the planting of legumes such as soy beans, peanuts and peas. Soil conservation would be enhanced as would climate resilience. Many NGO programmes in Malawi promote this diversified model in search of the multiple benefits that it potentially offers.
Recognising that only about 4% of land is irrigated, the government is investing hopes in the Green Belt Programme, an ambitious plan to encircle Lake Malawi and other natural waterways with modern irrigation facilities.
Social Cash Transfer Schemes as a safety net for the poorest families have been piloted in Malawi. Despite problems in identifying suitable beneficiaries, the government is keen to scale up the programme.
Fundamental land reform is overdue, especially in the context of non-existent rights for women. Almost 70% of land is occupied as customary tenure, offering insufficient security for investment and credit. Legislative initiatives are much discussed but remain a step too far in Malawi.
This World Bank film illustrates some of the approaches for improving food security in Malawi.
Climate Change
Effects of Climate Change
Fertilizer strengthens a maize crop but cannot protect it fully from rising temperatures. Warmer nights in particular shorten the growing season. Climate models warn that inland regions of southern and eastern Africa can expect temperatures to rise above the global average.
Formal studies of climate vulnerability remove any excuse for neglecting the threat. The World Bank has identified Malawi as the developing country most at risk from drought arising from global warming. The Maplecroft 2011 Climate Change Vulnerability Index includes Malawi in its list of 16 countries classified as “extreme risk”.
In a very different analysis, a 2010 Oxfam report compiles extensive anecdotal evidence from farmers bewildered by changing patterns of rainfall and wind direction.
Whilst floods will remain a major concern, scientific predictions of the volume and intensity of rainfall in Malawi are inconsistent. Uncertainties particularly apply to years of the El Nino phenomenon for which climate models lack resolution.
Villages in Malawi must take action to limit the consequences of increased frequency of floods, from ECHONairobi.
Adaptation
Malawi’s adaptation plans are hampered both by the limited means available to poor farmers, the extent of poverty in the country and the widespread lack of understanding of the causes and effects of climate change.
The priority projects identified in the country's National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) therefore focus on accelerating poverty reduction strategies relating to agriculture. They include improved grain storage facilities, diversification of crops and afforestation.
Only one of these projects has so far gained donor funding. And the subject of disaster risk management - which includes provision of early warning of extreme weather events - is not adequately addressed in the NAPA. Resources for the Department of Disaster Management Affairs will be a central adaptation strategy and funding need.
In terms of central government organisation, Malawi is therefore less advanced than many countries in the region. But the building blocks are slowly falling into place.
The government has won support from the Africa Adaptation Programme to develop the institutional and planning structures necessary to prepare and implement a national climate change strategy. One of the nine strategic priorities of the MDGS II (2011-2016) is “Managing Climate Change, Natural Resources and the Environment .”
Adaptation Climate Change Malawi, projects supported by CURE, from IIED Films Deforestation and Electricity Access
The relationship between forests and energy is of fundamental importance to both climate change and development in Malawi. Almost the entire population relies on charcoal or wood for household fuel. This drives deforestation, as does the expansion of agriculture by poor farmers in search of more land.
Forest cover remains approximately 35% but is declining at an average of 0.9% per annum, one of the highest rates in southern Africa. Primary forest - which accounts for a third of the country’s forest cover - experiences a higher rate of loss.
Malawi has yet to make any formal application to participate in the UN scheme for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD). Nevertheless, forest policies and legislation have been in place for many years, promising to encourage a degree of community control over forest resources with a view to more sustainable management.
Such intent however remains powerless to reverse deforestation due to the abysmal supply of electricity. In 2009, coverage sufficient for lighting was only 36% in the cities and 11% in rural areas. Rising demand for wood and charcoal is inevitable.
The 2011 withdrawal of funding to revitalise Malawi’s energy sector promised by the US-based Millennium Challenge Corporation therefore represents a massive setback for the country’s economic prospects. Political reforms necessary to meet the concerns of the donor appear highly desirable in this context.
Some estimates suggest that the grant of $350 million over 5 years might have brought power to half of Malawi’s population, reviving hydro installations along the Shire river and introducing micro-hydro technologies to rural areas.
A basic explanation of the links between deforestation, energy and the economy in Malawi, from Communicty
The most recent Integrated Household Survey conducted in 2005 classified 52% of the population in Malawi as below the national poverty line. By 2009, according to the Welfare Monitoring Survey, a less thorough census, this poverty rate had reduced to 39%.
|
| Household laundry in Malawi © Nicole Johnston / Oxfam International/Flickr |
This presumption of linear progression in poverty reduction is very sensitive to setbacks in the rural economy where most poverty is located. Although urban poverty is relatively low at 14%, the country’s economic base is very narrow and remains vulnerable to shocks.
A further sensitivity is Malawi’s dependence on foreign aid which finances a large proportion of poverty reduction programmes implemented by non-governmental agencies. Unfortunately, the period since the re-election of President Bingu Wa Mutharika in 2010 has unhinged the customary excellent donor relations.
A series of authoritarian measures, culminating in violent suppression of public protests in August 2011, has prompted many key donors to suspend their support. The capacity of government ministries to implement development programmes is already known to be weak. And decentralisation is constrained by the continued postponement of local elections, yet another source of donor dissatisfaction.
Meanwhile, poverty reduction programmes will be guided by the updated Malawi Growth and Development Strategy (MGDS II) which covers the period 2011-2016.
The poverty line adopted for the purposes of tracking MDG progress in Malawi is the cost of minimum food necessities plus critical non-food items. This calculation will be updated in line with the results of a new Integrated Household Survey which was due for completion in early 2011.
Food Security
Progress
In Malawi 85% of the population is dependent on agriculture. These subsistence farmers and farmworkers rely on rainfed crops, predominantly maize, the staple of the national diet.
|
| Farming in Malawi © IRIN News |
In a landlocked country with one of the poorest road infrastructures in sub-Saharan Africa, imported food can be prohibitively expensive. In 2005, the lowest maize harvest in a decade left almost half of the population in need of food assistance.
From this unpromising platform, Malawi’s food security has experienced a remarkable transformation. A succession of improving maize harvests has culminated in a significant surplus in 2011, sufficient both to stock the national strategic grain reserve and to export.
Prices of the staple grain in markets are lower than in 2010 and food aid requirements should be limited to local areas suffering flood or drought.
The driver of this positive progress has been a government programme of seed and fertilizer subsidies. In defiance of the ideological inclinations of international donors and financial institutions, the Food Input Subsidy Programme provides deep discounts on improved hybrid maize seeds and fertilizer for about half of the country’s subsistence farmers.
The government has allocated 12.6% of its budget for 2011/12 to agriculture, continuing a rare record of commitment on this scale in Africa. The measure of hunger fell from 24% to 15% between 1998 and 2009, on track to achieve the MDG target of 12% by 2015.
Malawi’s apparent success in overcoming the limitations of small farmers, simultaneously stimulating poverty reduction and wider economic growth, has attracted international acclaim. Global civil society submissions to the UN MDG Summit in 2010 cited the Malawi subsidy scheme as an example of “best practice” for achieving the Goals.
Problems
Although the government shows no sign of changing course, there is rising debate about the potential shortcomings of the Malawian farm subsidy policy.
|
| President Mutharika of Malawi © IRIN News |
An unvarying diet of maize is a recipe for malnutrition, especially amongst young children. This may explain why the incidence of underweight children aged under five years increased from 14% to 17% in the period 2007-2009, years in which the broader measure of hunger was improving. Poor families lack awareness of the importance of a more balanced diet.
The sequence of abundant harvests is disguising the deterioration in soil quality which is the inevitable outcome of an unbroken cycle of fertilizer-rich maize planting. Leaving land fallow on small farms is impractical. The degraded soil craves ever more fertilizer.
Another known weakness of maize is its poor resilience to weather extremes of flood, drought and high temperatures. Given the generally favourable rainfall in Malawi in recent years, it is possible that the subsidy scheme has not yet been subjected to a true test of climate stress.
Importing fertilizer on this scale locks the government budget into the risk of spikes in the world price of oil. It also squeezes out spending on other vital needs of the agriculture sector. These include the provision of technical advice by extension workers and scientific research into improved varieties of local seeds.
Operational concerns inevitably focus on the effective targeting of subsidies. Village committees and headmen are tasked with identifying “vulnerable” households and some studies suggest that the process lacks impartiality. Female-headed households are a particular concern - a quarter of rural households fall into this category.
Solutions
The subsidy incentive to plant more maize also discourages crop diversification and livestock farming. This modest change of direction would make significant inroads into all of the problems associated with maize monoculture.
|
| Small-scale irrigation in Balaka, Malawi © Nicole Johnston / Oxfam International/Flickr |
Recognising that only about 4% of land is irrigated, the government is investing hopes in the Green Belt Programme, an ambitious plan to encircle Lake Malawi and other natural waterways with modern irrigation facilities.
Social Cash Transfer Schemes as a safety net for the poorest families have been piloted in Malawi. Despite problems in identifying suitable beneficiaries, the government is keen to scale up the programme.
Fundamental land reform is overdue, especially in the context of non-existent rights for women. Almost 70% of land is occupied as customary tenure, offering insufficient security for investment and credit. Legislative initiatives are much discussed but remain a step too far in Malawi.
This World Bank film illustrates some of the approaches for improving food security in Malawi.
Climate Change
Effects of Climate Change
Fertilizer strengthens a maize crop but cannot protect it fully from rising temperatures. Warmer nights in particular shorten the growing season. Climate models warn that inland regions of southern and eastern Africa can expect temperatures to rise above the global average.
|
| Floods in Malawi © IRIN News |
In a very different analysis, a 2010 Oxfam report compiles extensive anecdotal evidence from farmers bewildered by changing patterns of rainfall and wind direction.
Whilst floods will remain a major concern, scientific predictions of the volume and intensity of rainfall in Malawi are inconsistent. Uncertainties particularly apply to years of the El Nino phenomenon for which climate models lack resolution.
Villages in Malawi must take action to limit the consequences of increased frequency of floods, from ECHONairobi.
Adaptation
Malawi’s adaptation plans are hampered both by the limited means available to poor farmers, the extent of poverty in the country and the widespread lack of understanding of the causes and effects of climate change.
|
| Legumes offer vital crop diversification in Malawi © Kristy Siegfried/IRIN / IRIN News |
Only one of these projects has so far gained donor funding. And the subject of disaster risk management - which includes provision of early warning of extreme weather events - is not adequately addressed in the NAPA. Resources for the Department of Disaster Management Affairs will be a central adaptation strategy and funding need.
In terms of central government organisation, Malawi is therefore less advanced than many countries in the region. But the building blocks are slowly falling into place.
The government has won support from the Africa Adaptation Programme to develop the institutional and planning structures necessary to prepare and implement a national climate change strategy. One of the nine strategic priorities of the MDGS II (2011-2016) is “Managing Climate Change, Natural Resources and the Environment .”
Adaptation Climate Change Malawi, projects supported by CURE, from IIED Films Deforestation and Electricity Access
The relationship between forests and energy is of fundamental importance to both climate change and development in Malawi. Almost the entire population relies on charcoal or wood for household fuel. This drives deforestation, as does the expansion of agriculture by poor farmers in search of more land.
|
| Deforestation in Malawi © Nicole Johnston / Oxfam International/Flickr |
Malawi has yet to make any formal application to participate in the UN scheme for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD). Nevertheless, forest policies and legislation have been in place for many years, promising to encourage a degree of community control over forest resources with a view to more sustainable management.
Such intent however remains powerless to reverse deforestation due to the abysmal supply of electricity. In 2009, coverage sufficient for lighting was only 36% in the cities and 11% in rural areas. Rising demand for wood and charcoal is inevitable.
The 2011 withdrawal of funding to revitalise Malawi’s energy sector promised by the US-based Millennium Challenge Corporation therefore represents a massive setback for the country’s economic prospects. Political reforms necessary to meet the concerns of the donor appear highly desirable in this context.
Some estimates suggest that the grant of $350 million over 5 years might have brought power to half of Malawi’s population, reviving hydro installations along the Shire river and introducing micro-hydro technologies to rural areas.
A basic explanation of the links between deforestation, energy and the economy in Malawi, from Communicty
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