Rwanda briefings
...poverty, food and energy in a changing climate
...poverty, food and energy in a changing climate
|
| Mother and child, Rwanda © Heidi Martin |
An economy dominated by rudimentary agriculture has not diminished the resolve of the Rwandan government to achieve middle income status by 2020. Its radical policies need to overcome natural reservations of ordinary people as well as the very high transport costs for moving goods in or out of the landlocked country. Success would deliver much-needed poverty reduction as well as defence against climate change.
updated August 2011
Poverty Reduction
The 1990-2015 window for assessing the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) poses unique difficulties for Rwanda. The traumatic upheaval of the 1994 genocide inevitably caused poverty to rise sharply during the first decade of this period.
By 2000, over 60% of the population lived below the national poverty line, calculated as the value of basic food plus non-food essentials. The 2015 target is 23.8%, being half the poverty rate in 1990.
By 2006 the rate had fallen only to 57% and more recent progress cannot be assessed until results of a new Household Survey on Living Conditions are published, most likely during 2012. There is considerable concern that the benefits of many years of strong headline economic growth are not reaching beyond the educated urban elites.
“If the recent growth in inequalities is not addressed it will prove increasingly difficult to reduce poverty rates further,” concludes the 2010 MDG progress report for Rwanda. The implication is that growth is bypassing rural households, where 90% of poverty is located.
A more optimistic view will point to the stable political environment together with international praise for Rwanda’s overall economic development. A bumper harvest in 2008 fended off the worst of the global food price crisis whilst a 2010 Transparency International report applauded that “incidents of bribery were found to be negligible” in the Rwandan economy.
The government certainly conveys strong belief in its capacity to transform the country’s fortunes. A clear focus on accomplishing the MDGs is articulated in Rwanda’s Economic Development Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS) 2008-2012. And its strategic Vision 2020 sets out the goal of advancing to middle income status by developing more commercial models of agriculture, diversifying rural livelihoods and creating knowledge-based services such as tourism.
Nevertheless, the MDG progress report concedes that the target of halving poverty by 2015 is unrealistic. There are signs that the capacity of central and regional government bodies has not progressed as quickly as hoped. This is critical to implementing key poverty reduction strategies, which include direct cash payments to the poorest households and public works programmes.
Furthermore, the government remains dependent on aid for as much as 50% of its annual budget. Relationships with international donors are sensitive, partly due to the government’s suppression of multi-party democracy and partly due to President Paul Kagame’s challenging views on the value of foreign aid for economic development in Africa.
How construction of new villages can overcome poverty in Rwanda, from TVE Inspiring Change Food Security
Progress
Unlike many of its neighbours, Rwanda has been able to improve agricultural yields consistently to the extent that it can lay claim to food security at national level. National food production has exceeded consumption in aggregate in the years 2008-2010.
Due to poverty and inequality, this status does not apply to all individual households. The 2009 Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis & Nutrition Survey concluded that 21% of families experience poor or borderline food consumption. And 16% of children aged under five were underweight.
These figures represent a marked improvement over a previous survey in 2006 and, assuming that a more comprehensive household survey would produce similar results, the 2015 MDG targets for these two hunger indicators are close to being achieved.
Causes of Food Insecurity
However, this food security survey was conducted in early 2009, a period acknowledged in the report to be “relatively favourable.” Dependent on two cropping seasons with little artificial irrigation, Rwandan farmers are highly vulnerable to the variable climate, drought being a regular hazard.
The root cause of food insecurity is the tiny average size of farming plots. The government estimates that 60% of the population is dependent on farms of less than 0.7 hectares, the approximate threshold for providing sufficient food or income.
Further downward pressure on farm sizes is exerted by a high population growth rate of 2.8% per annum. The density of about 370 people per square kilometre is already the highest in Africa and the population is projected to increase by a further 30% over the current decade.
This structural weakness is compounded by Rwanda’s natural topography in which 80% of arable land lies on slopes. The risk of soil erosion is aggravated by unsustainable husbandry methods adopted by poor farmers who lack resources or access to credit necessary to improve their land.
At least 80% of the population is dependent on agriculture for livelihoods. The most serious risk of hunger is found in farms which fail to diversify from the staple crops of kidney beans and sweet potatoes and which are unable to find supplementary income sources to compensate for shortcomings in subsistence.
Solutions
With such overwhelming household dependence on farming, the Rwandan government recognises that investment in agriculture is the most cost effective path to poverty reduction. Spending on the sector was increased to 7% of the 2010 national budget and a range of ambitious plans is in place.
For example, the Crop Intensification Project supports a modern intensive model of farming with high technology seeds, fertilizer, irrigation, storage and processing. The goal is to reduce dependence on farm livelihoods to 50% of the population by 2020.
The plans are underpinned by the 2005 Land Law which seeks to address a chaotic legacy of land tenure. Starting in 2009, a five year programme is under way for the National Land Centre to register 8 million land plots, many of them small fragments divided between family members. Women are now entitled to equal rights of ownership.
In return, households will come under pressure to cooperate with proposals to consolidate land use. These will include mergers of small plots into more viable units, establishing cooperatives, and moving into new village settlements which are more efficient to support than scattered homes.
The government’s Strategic Plan for Environment and Natural Resources Sector (2009-2013) involves a determined effort to integrate environmental sustainability into all economic development plans. Rehabilitation of soil and water quality is most visible in programmes to terrace the steeper farm slopes so that planting can be extended. The target is to protect 80% of the areas vulnerable to soil erosion by 2020.
The achievement of food security at national level supports the Agriculture Development Authority's claims of impressive results of these programmes. The World Food Programme plans to phase out its operations in Rwanda by 2012.
However, favourable weather conditions have played a part. And there are reports of slow implementation of the more radical changes, with peasant farmers reluctant to embark on wholesale upheaval of their traditional ways.
Poverty and Environment Initiative: poverty reduction depends on sustainable land management, from UnepAndYou Climate Change
Effects
Global climate models available for Africa lack the resolution necessary to deliver consistent predictions of the impact of global warming on a small country such as Rwanda. The climate is already variable, both seasonally and between different regions of the country. Greater volatility occurs during the periodic El Nino and La Nina phenomena.
It is therefore not yet possible to project changes to the volume of rainfall or the incidence of extreme weather events that could be attributable to climate change.
However, in a predominantly rain-fed agrarian economy, where poverty and food insecurity are rife, climate variability regularly inflicts social and economic setbacks. Climate change, of whatever direction or degree, will therefore exacerbate this vulnerability and government ministers say that its impact is already being felt in Rwanda.
A comprehensive study by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) suggests that, without adaptation, the economic cost of damage caused by global warming in Rwanda could amount to 1% of annual GDP by 2030.
Amongst the uncertainties, a steady rise in temperature is a relatively confident prediction, between 1.5° and 3.0° by the 2050s. The SEI report points out that a large proportion of the rural population currently lives at altitudes beyond the normal mosquito habitat. As temperatures rise, so will the threshold altitude, increasing by 150% the number of Rwandans at risk of malaria by 2050. The potential healthcare costs are of the order of $50 million per annum.
Adaptation
The rural economy in Rwanda lacks capacity to adapt to existing climate variability because it is underdeveloped. Climate change therefore accentuates the need for adaptation that already exists.
For example, programmes to rehabilitate degraded farm terraces or to select drought-resistant seeds not only improve food security but also create resilience against future climate change. The optimum response to climate change will combine acceleration of poverty reduction strategies with development of a climate risk management infrastructure.
This will be underpinned by the restoration of meteorological data collection and weather forecasting stations. Risk assessments of vulnerable regions will also contribute to early warning systems. A new Rwandan Ministry of Disaster Management was introduced in 2010.
Rwanda’s National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) published in 2007 identified priorities for adaptation which are broadly consistent with this strategy. However, climate project implementation has been piecemeal, with overlapping responsibilities and objectives.
Furthermore, the SEI analysis warned that the NAPA is far too modest in aspiration, suggesting instead a financial tag of $50-$300 million per annum by 2030 for climate adaptation in Rwanda.
The government is now embarking on more determined steps to integrate climate change considerations into social and economic plans. It has commissioned the preparation of a National Strategy on Climate Change and Low Carbon Development that will guide national policy and decision making. The new strategy will position Rwanda to take maximum advantage of international climate finance such as the new Green Climate Fund.
Deforestation
The use of firewood or charcoal as the primary source of energy extends to 96% of the rural population and 72% of the households in the capital, Kigali. The government estimates that total demand for firewood outstrips the sustainable supply by a factor of four.
Active government policies of forest rehabilitation, reforestation and enforcement of protected zones are taking effect. Although the 2010 MDG progress report considers there to be “little prospect” of increasing forest cover to the MDG target of 25% by 2015, the government has an energetic National Forestry Policy. One billion seedlings are to be planted by 2013.
However, the government recognises that the use of firewood cannot be eliminated in the short term. Its biomass energy strategy encompasses the use of energy efficient stoves and the creation of sustainable wood harvesting environments, as well as more conventional investment in alternative energy sources.
Rwanda is not currently listed as a country seeking finance from the proposed global scheme for “reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation” (REDD).
Electricity Access
This pragmatic acceptance of continued demand for firewood stems from the stumbling progress of power generation in Rwanda, believed to offer the second lowest per capita output in East and Central Africa. The Minister for Energy and Water claims that 14% of the population can access a supply, up from 7% in 2009. Coverage in rural areas is minimal.
Rwanda’s energy strategy to date has been pinned on a combination of hydropower and the innovative exploitation of methane trapped in Lake Kivu. The former has underperformed due to the low level of lake water whilst the latter has encountered hesitant investors.
Although estimates suggest that Lake Kivu could upgrade the country’s capacity by a factor of ten, sustainable for 50 years, the risks involved with methane and carbon dioxide are considerable, not least because two million people live in the vicinity of the lake. These concerns appear to have been overcome and the energy company, ContourGlobal Kivuwatt Ltd, has promised that Lake Kivu generation will commence in 2012 with output rising in subsequent years.
The government has set a demanding target of 50% coverage by 2017, based on development of new hydro, geothermal and biomass generation with an ambitious price tag of $5 billion. Nevertheless, most rural areas will have to be content with micro-hydro and solar resources.
Small hydro plants provide electricity in remote rural areas in Rwanda, from UNIDO
The 1990-2015 window for assessing the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) poses unique difficulties for Rwanda. The traumatic upheaval of the 1994 genocide inevitably caused poverty to rise sharply during the first decade of this period.
|
| Rwandan school © Aimable Twahirwa / IRIN News |
By 2006 the rate had fallen only to 57% and more recent progress cannot be assessed until results of a new Household Survey on Living Conditions are published, most likely during 2012. There is considerable concern that the benefits of many years of strong headline economic growth are not reaching beyond the educated urban elites.
“If the recent growth in inequalities is not addressed it will prove increasingly difficult to reduce poverty rates further,” concludes the 2010 MDG progress report for Rwanda. The implication is that growth is bypassing rural households, where 90% of poverty is located.
A more optimistic view will point to the stable political environment together with international praise for Rwanda’s overall economic development. A bumper harvest in 2008 fended off the worst of the global food price crisis whilst a 2010 Transparency International report applauded that “incidents of bribery were found to be negligible” in the Rwandan economy.
The government certainly conveys strong belief in its capacity to transform the country’s fortunes. A clear focus on accomplishing the MDGs is articulated in Rwanda’s Economic Development Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS) 2008-2012. And its strategic Vision 2020 sets out the goal of advancing to middle income status by developing more commercial models of agriculture, diversifying rural livelihoods and creating knowledge-based services such as tourism.
Nevertheless, the MDG progress report concedes that the target of halving poverty by 2015 is unrealistic. There are signs that the capacity of central and regional government bodies has not progressed as quickly as hoped. This is critical to implementing key poverty reduction strategies, which include direct cash payments to the poorest households and public works programmes.
Furthermore, the government remains dependent on aid for as much as 50% of its annual budget. Relationships with international donors are sensitive, partly due to the government’s suppression of multi-party democracy and partly due to President Paul Kagame’s challenging views on the value of foreign aid for economic development in Africa.
How construction of new villages can overcome poverty in Rwanda, from TVE Inspiring Change Food Security
Progress
Unlike many of its neighbours, Rwanda has been able to improve agricultural yields consistently to the extent that it can lay claim to food security at national level. National food production has exceeded consumption in aggregate in the years 2008-2010.
Due to poverty and inequality, this status does not apply to all individual households. The 2009 Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis & Nutrition Survey concluded that 21% of families experience poor or borderline food consumption. And 16% of children aged under five were underweight.
These figures represent a marked improvement over a previous survey in 2006 and, assuming that a more comprehensive household survey would produce similar results, the 2015 MDG targets for these two hunger indicators are close to being achieved.
Causes of Food Insecurity
However, this food security survey was conducted in early 2009, a period acknowledged in the report to be “relatively favourable.” Dependent on two cropping seasons with little artificial irrigation, Rwandan farmers are highly vulnerable to the variable climate, drought being a regular hazard.
|
| Herding cattle, Rwanda © Heidi Martin |
Further downward pressure on farm sizes is exerted by a high population growth rate of 2.8% per annum. The density of about 370 people per square kilometre is already the highest in Africa and the population is projected to increase by a further 30% over the current decade.
This structural weakness is compounded by Rwanda’s natural topography in which 80% of arable land lies on slopes. The risk of soil erosion is aggravated by unsustainable husbandry methods adopted by poor farmers who lack resources or access to credit necessary to improve their land.
At least 80% of the population is dependent on agriculture for livelihoods. The most serious risk of hunger is found in farms which fail to diversify from the staple crops of kidney beans and sweet potatoes and which are unable to find supplementary income sources to compensate for shortcomings in subsistence.
Solutions
With such overwhelming household dependence on farming, the Rwandan government recognises that investment in agriculture is the most cost effective path to poverty reduction. Spending on the sector was increased to 7% of the 2010 national budget and a range of ambitious plans is in place.
For example, the Crop Intensification Project supports a modern intensive model of farming with high technology seeds, fertilizer, irrigation, storage and processing. The goal is to reduce dependence on farm livelihoods to 50% of the population by 2020.
|
| Rural settlement, Rwanda © Heidi Martin |
In return, households will come under pressure to cooperate with proposals to consolidate land use. These will include mergers of small plots into more viable units, establishing cooperatives, and moving into new village settlements which are more efficient to support than scattered homes.
The government’s Strategic Plan for Environment and Natural Resources Sector (2009-2013) involves a determined effort to integrate environmental sustainability into all economic development plans. Rehabilitation of soil and water quality is most visible in programmes to terrace the steeper farm slopes so that planting can be extended. The target is to protect 80% of the areas vulnerable to soil erosion by 2020.
The achievement of food security at national level supports the Agriculture Development Authority's claims of impressive results of these programmes. The World Food Programme plans to phase out its operations in Rwanda by 2012.
However, favourable weather conditions have played a part. And there are reports of slow implementation of the more radical changes, with peasant farmers reluctant to embark on wholesale upheaval of their traditional ways.
Poverty and Environment Initiative: poverty reduction depends on sustainable land management, from UnepAndYou Climate Change
Effects
Global climate models available for Africa lack the resolution necessary to deliver consistent predictions of the impact of global warming on a small country such as Rwanda. The climate is already variable, both seasonally and between different regions of the country. Greater volatility occurs during the periodic El Nino and La Nina phenomena.
|
| Women farmers in Rwanda © Aimable Twahirwa / IRIN News |
However, in a predominantly rain-fed agrarian economy, where poverty and food insecurity are rife, climate variability regularly inflicts social and economic setbacks. Climate change, of whatever direction or degree, will therefore exacerbate this vulnerability and government ministers say that its impact is already being felt in Rwanda.
A comprehensive study by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) suggests that, without adaptation, the economic cost of damage caused by global warming in Rwanda could amount to 1% of annual GDP by 2030.
Amongst the uncertainties, a steady rise in temperature is a relatively confident prediction, between 1.5° and 3.0° by the 2050s. The SEI report points out that a large proportion of the rural population currently lives at altitudes beyond the normal mosquito habitat. As temperatures rise, so will the threshold altitude, increasing by 150% the number of Rwandans at risk of malaria by 2050. The potential healthcare costs are of the order of $50 million per annum.
Adaptation
The rural economy in Rwanda lacks capacity to adapt to existing climate variability because it is underdeveloped. Climate change therefore accentuates the need for adaptation that already exists.
For example, programmes to rehabilitate degraded farm terraces or to select drought-resistant seeds not only improve food security but also create resilience against future climate change. The optimum response to climate change will combine acceleration of poverty reduction strategies with development of a climate risk management infrastructure.
This will be underpinned by the restoration of meteorological data collection and weather forecasting stations. Risk assessments of vulnerable regions will also contribute to early warning systems. A new Rwandan Ministry of Disaster Management was introduced in 2010.
Rwanda’s National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) published in 2007 identified priorities for adaptation which are broadly consistent with this strategy. However, climate project implementation has been piecemeal, with overlapping responsibilities and objectives.
Furthermore, the SEI analysis warned that the NAPA is far too modest in aspiration, suggesting instead a financial tag of $50-$300 million per annum by 2030 for climate adaptation in Rwanda.
The government is now embarking on more determined steps to integrate climate change considerations into social and economic plans. It has commissioned the preparation of a National Strategy on Climate Change and Low Carbon Development that will guide national policy and decision making. The new strategy will position Rwanda to take maximum advantage of international climate finance such as the new Green Climate Fund.
Deforestation
The use of firewood or charcoal as the primary source of energy extends to 96% of the rural population and 72% of the households in the capital, Kigali. The government estimates that total demand for firewood outstrips the sustainable supply by a factor of four.
|
| Hillside terrain in Kebero, Rwanda © Ann Weru / IRIN News |
However, the government recognises that the use of firewood cannot be eliminated in the short term. Its biomass energy strategy encompasses the use of energy efficient stoves and the creation of sustainable wood harvesting environments, as well as more conventional investment in alternative energy sources.
Rwanda is not currently listed as a country seeking finance from the proposed global scheme for “reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation” (REDD).
Electricity Access
This pragmatic acceptance of continued demand for firewood stems from the stumbling progress of power generation in Rwanda, believed to offer the second lowest per capita output in East and Central Africa. The Minister for Energy and Water claims that 14% of the population can access a supply, up from 7% in 2009. Coverage in rural areas is minimal.
|
| Lake Kivu, Rwanda © Heidi Martin |
Although estimates suggest that Lake Kivu could upgrade the country’s capacity by a factor of ten, sustainable for 50 years, the risks involved with methane and carbon dioxide are considerable, not least because two million people live in the vicinity of the lake. These concerns appear to have been overcome and the energy company, ContourGlobal Kivuwatt Ltd, has promised that Lake Kivu generation will commence in 2012 with output rising in subsequent years.
The government has set a demanding target of 50% coverage by 2017, based on development of new hydro, geothermal and biomass generation with an ambitious price tag of $5 billion. Nevertheless, most rural areas will have to be content with micro-hydro and solar resources.
Small hydro plants provide electricity in remote rural areas in Rwanda, from UNIDO
»
Your right of reply
Do these OneWorld briefings contain any inaccuracies?
Has something important been omitted?
Your views are welcome
»
Please write to the Guides Editor Has something important been omitted?
Your views are welcome
Printable version
top of the page