Serbia guide
Ruthless restructuring of Serbia's antiquated socialist economy is yet to fulfil either the aspiration of full employment or an end to discrimination against minority groups. The strong political leadership necessary to inspire economic recovery is in short supply. The country is torn between its historic claims over Kosovo and the promise of future riches of membership of the European Union. Kosovo’s declaration of independence creates difficulties in redefining international responsibilities within its territory, with inevitable concern for the goal of peaceful political settlement.
updated December 2008
Poverty in Serbia
The socialist ideology of the former Yugoslavia ensured that, by the baseline year (1990) of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), Serbia had achieved high standards of health and education, in a society of relatively low inequality and full employment. Then came the years of civil war and sanctions and, since 2000, the adoption of a market economy fashioned strictly according to IMF and World Bank expectations. The result is a country of very different priorities in which there can be far less confidence in the sectors addressed by the MDGs.
For example, healthcare services are no longer free and the principle of a safety net for extreme poverty is under threat. The rate of unemployment is the key MDG poverty indicator chosen by the Serbian government yet the numbers formally registered as out of work have increased since 2000, reaching almost 20% in 2008. A more positive picture emerges through Serbia's Poverty Reduction Strategy which aims to halve by 2010 the number of people living below a poverty line based on the cost of food and essential non-food items. Whilst the choice of baseline year is unclear, the proportion of the population below this poverty line fell from 13.3% to 6.6% between 2002 and 2007, implying that the 2010 objective will be achieved.
However, these figures mask two problems. Firstly that about 30% of the population survives just above the poverty line, vulnerable to economic shocks. Secondly, that the experience of the most vulnerable groups has been quite different. The Roma and other minorities, refugees and internally displaced persons, and those in very rural areas have not benefited from headline growth performance. Unemployment amongst these groups is widespread with little advance in poverty reduction. Less than 40% of Roma children complete primary education and 49% of the Roma people were assessed to be below the poverty line in 2007. The survey conducted in that year also reported that 6.4% of this group was affected by extreme poverty, unable to provide sufficient food. Kosovo is excluded from all social data published by the Serbian government.
Whilst health and other social services for the poor are covered by state insurance, many fail to take advantage either through lack of awareness or technical constraints such as lack of a birth certificate. Many international aid projects provide assistance in obtaining appropriate identity documents. The difficulties faced by these vulnerable groups are addressed in the special MDG indicators adopted by the government's taskforce established to monitor the MDGs. Nonetheless, basic data about the Roma people is uncertain; a census of 2002 gave a population figure of 108,000 but the Roma themselves believe the true figure to be several times higher.
Conflict in Serbia and Kosovo
Much of the responsibility for the fragmentation of the former Yugoslavia can be laid at the door of the extreme nationalist former president of Serbia, Slobodan Milosevic. The final straw for the international community was his bloody 1998 suppression of an insurgency in Kosovo, an autonomous region of about 2 million people within the Republic of Serbia, of which about 1.8 million are of Albanian ethnicity. As killings of members of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) and its supporters raised the spectre of ethnic cleansing, NATO intervened in 1999 to bomb Serbia and evict the Serbian army from Kosovo. Ruthless reprisals against the Serb minority and their property in Kosovo ensured that the Province has since been under the military protection of the NATO Force in Kosovo (KFOR).
With 16,000 NATO troops in place to protect the Serb minority of just over 100,000, the international community has failed in its objective of creating a peaceful multi-ethnic society in Kosovo. Under supervision of a Contact Group of countries comprising France, Germany, Italy, Russia, UK, and US, successive phases of diplomacy were unable to bring the two sides to agreement, such is the residual enmity between them. Serbia claims that Kosovo is integral to the country's history and traditions whilst Kosovo asserts that the actions of Milosevic forfeited Serbia's right to govern even in the most autonomous structure.
International politics has also contributed to the impasse. Independence for Kosovo could be interpreted as a green light for all other separatist movements, including those active in the post-Soviet region and southern Europe. The Russian veto has therefore scuppered UN plans of which the most promising was drawn up by a Finnish special envoy, Martti Ahtisaari, His proposal allowed Kosovan independence but with tightly drawn conditions such as protection of the Serbian minority, to be supervised by UN observers.
Events during 2008 were driven more by the Kosovans themselves. Elections to the Kosovan parliament held in November 2007 resulted in victory for the Democratic Party headed by Hashim Thaci, a former guerrilla leader who made no secret of his goal of independence. Encouraged by a promise by former president Bush that US recognition would be forthcoming, Kosovo made a unilateral declaration of independence in February 2008.
Although the move has since been endorsed by about 50 countries. Kosovo as yet lacks the crucial recognition of either the UN or European Union (EU). The UN has awarded Serbia the right to appeal to the International Court of Justice for a non-legally binding ruling on Kosovan independence, a process which could take two years. Meanwhile the enclaves which are home to the Serb minority are administered by parallel institutions funded by the Serbian government.
Politics in Serbia
Politics in Serbia therefore suffers the anguish of choosing between the de facto loss of Kosovo (implying progress towards EU membership) and nationalist loyalty to the province (implying closer relations with Russia). This tension caused the government to fall in April 2008. Concerned that the swing towards nationalist sentiment in both territories could unravel so much nation-building and reconstruction in Southeast Europe, the EU accelerated the signing of a Stabilisation and Association Agreement with Serbia, the first step in the membership process.
With this sign of goodwill, the pro-Europe Democratic Party (DS) was able to take 103 out of 250 seats in the May 2008 elections to Serbia's Skupstina (national assembly), defeating the nationalist Serbian Radical Party (SRS). The new prime minister, Mirko Cvetkovic, heads a DS coalition with the Socialist Party and other small groups. Serbia's president, Boris Tadic, was re-elected in January 2008, defeating the nationalist former SRS leader, Tomislav Nikolic. Although the president's role is largely ceremonial, Tadic is also leader of the DS and represents a compromise position, opposing Kosovan independence whilst favouring European integration.
Although the conduct of elections has been praised by international observers, everyday life in Serbia is tainted by corruption of public officials, a culture which the more modern state is struggling to offload. Political and business elites are distrusted for the same reason. Anti-corruption initiatives have so far proved ineffective.
Civil society is strongly supported by both international and European agencies whose funds are directed primarily at organisational capacity building. There are concerns however that legislation governing the affairs of the non-profit sector is out of date, contributing to misunderstandings between government and NGOs.
Human Rights in Serbia
The pressure on the Serbian government to satisfy European demands was illustrated in July 2008 by the dramatic arrest of Radovan Karadzic. A significant stumbling block in European negotiations is the presumed presence in Serbian territory of such individuals, wanted for war crimes by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY). Whether or not the timing of the capture of Karadzic was coincidental, attention will now turn to former General Mladic, accused of comparable crimes. Countries such as the Netherlands are uncomfortable with Serbian efforts to fast track their membership application as long as Mladic is at large.
Extending the principle of accountability for war crimes from individuals to states lay behind an application to the International Court of Justice by the Bosnian government in 2007. If Serbia could be charged with the Srebrenica genocide, then a claim for reparations might be possible. However, whilst the Court ruled that Serbia could have done more to prevent the genocide, no case could be brought for direct accountability. Croatia has lodged a similar case against Serbia.
Concern for EU compliance lay behind many of the amendments to the Serbian constitution approved by referendum in October 2006. Although the headline amendment was concerned with claims over Kosovo, provisions were included for the rights of minorities and conduct of the judiciary. Within Serbia, police brutality, arbitrary arrest and torture allegations were rife in the Milosevic era but since then the country has had a very good track record. Active measures have been taken to achieve this, including extensive police reform.
Such reforms have not extended to Kosovo where accountability has been hampered by a corrupt judiciary and failure to offer adequate witness protection. Amnesty International believes that hundreds of war crimes await investigation in Kosovo in contrast to the Belgrade War Crimes Chamber which has achieved many successful prosecutions. At the end of 2008, the United National Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) handed over its supervision of the police and criminal justice system to the European Union Rule of Law Mission (EULEX). Crime and corruption are rampant in Kosovo but both the UN and EU are obliged to remain neutral on the question of independence, maintaining an even-handed relationship with Kosovo’s cumbersome parallel institutions.
Serbia is home to 300,000 refugees and internally displaced persons, more than any other country in Europe, and the government is struggling to provide housing and other basic rights. The majority fled from Kosovo in 1999 and less than 10% have been able to return. There is tension between the government’s willingness to assist returns (to strengthen the Serbian presence in Kosovo) and the reality that the refugees’ interests might be better served by integration.
The Economy in Serbia
Serbia lags behind the countries of Eastern Europe in the painful conversion from a centralised command economy to a neo-liberal market model. GDP fell by 50% between 1990 and 2000 and almost 2000 state-owned enterprises, involving over 300,000 employees, have been privatised in the years up to 2007. In the absence of any strong trade unions, most Serbians associate privatisation with catastrophic loss of jobs matched only by the corrupt enrichment of elite politicians and business directors. Undeterred, the government plans to privatise many of the remaining state entities, offering to distribute free shares in response to criticisms.
The situation in Kosovo is considerably worse with about half of the workforce unemployed. Aid and overseas remittances account for almost 40% of the economy which is paralysed by the territorial uncertainty. The per capita aid figure for Kosovo is one of the highest in the world. A tricky aspect of independence negotiations will be the share of Serbian government debt attributable to Kosovo as well as the distribution of power supplies which are largely sourced within Serbia.
Information and Media in Serbia
Media independence, officially promoted since Milosevic's fall, remains a problem for individual journalists active in politics, with indirect political manipulation contributing to self-censorship. The media is dominated by the state service Radio Television Serbia, but a number of independent stations such as Tanjug and B92 do exist. There has been a great effort to increase the number of PCs in research, education, health and other public services. High literacy rates help to make increasing access to the Internet meaningful and all schools have been promised an ADSL line during 2009.
The socialist ideology of the former Yugoslavia ensured that, by the baseline year (1990) of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), Serbia had achieved high standards of health and education, in a society of relatively low inequality and full employment. Then came the years of civil war and sanctions and, since 2000, the adoption of a market economy fashioned strictly according to IMF and World Bank expectations. The result is a country of very different priorities in which there can be far less confidence in the sectors addressed by the MDGs.
For example, healthcare services are no longer free and the principle of a safety net for extreme poverty is under threat. The rate of unemployment is the key MDG poverty indicator chosen by the Serbian government yet the numbers formally registered as out of work have increased since 2000, reaching almost 20% in 2008. A more positive picture emerges through Serbia's Poverty Reduction Strategy which aims to halve by 2010 the number of people living below a poverty line based on the cost of food and essential non-food items. Whilst the choice of baseline year is unclear, the proportion of the population below this poverty line fell from 13.3% to 6.6% between 2002 and 2007, implying that the 2010 objective will be achieved.
However, these figures mask two problems. Firstly that about 30% of the population survives just above the poverty line, vulnerable to economic shocks. Secondly, that the experience of the most vulnerable groups has been quite different. The Roma and other minorities, refugees and internally displaced persons, and those in very rural areas have not benefited from headline growth performance. Unemployment amongst these groups is widespread with little advance in poverty reduction. Less than 40% of Roma children complete primary education and 49% of the Roma people were assessed to be below the poverty line in 2007. The survey conducted in that year also reported that 6.4% of this group was affected by extreme poverty, unable to provide sufficient food. Kosovo is excluded from all social data published by the Serbian government.
Whilst health and other social services for the poor are covered by state insurance, many fail to take advantage either through lack of awareness or technical constraints such as lack of a birth certificate. Many international aid projects provide assistance in obtaining appropriate identity documents. The difficulties faced by these vulnerable groups are addressed in the special MDG indicators adopted by the government's taskforce established to monitor the MDGs. Nonetheless, basic data about the Roma people is uncertain; a census of 2002 gave a population figure of 108,000 but the Roma themselves believe the true figure to be several times higher.
Conflict in Serbia and Kosovo
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| KLA fighters in Kosovo © Radio Netherlands / Radio Netherlands Wereldomroep |
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| KFOR soldier in Kosovo © Radio Netherlands Wereldomroep |
International politics has also contributed to the impasse. Independence for Kosovo could be interpreted as a green light for all other separatist movements, including those active in the post-Soviet region and southern Europe. The Russian veto has therefore scuppered UN plans of which the most promising was drawn up by a Finnish special envoy, Martti Ahtisaari, His proposal allowed Kosovan independence but with tightly drawn conditions such as protection of the Serbian minority, to be supervised by UN observers.
|
| Hashim Thaci, Bernard Koucher and Ibrahim Rugova in Kosovo © Andrew Testa |
Although the move has since been endorsed by about 50 countries. Kosovo as yet lacks the crucial recognition of either the UN or European Union (EU). The UN has awarded Serbia the right to appeal to the International Court of Justice for a non-legally binding ruling on Kosovan independence, a process which could take two years. Meanwhile the enclaves which are home to the Serb minority are administered by parallel institutions funded by the Serbian government.
Politics in Serbia
Politics in Serbia therefore suffers the anguish of choosing between the de facto loss of Kosovo (implying progress towards EU membership) and nationalist loyalty to the province (implying closer relations with Russia). This tension caused the government to fall in April 2008. Concerned that the swing towards nationalist sentiment in both territories could unravel so much nation-building and reconstruction in Southeast Europe, the EU accelerated the signing of a Stabilisation and Association Agreement with Serbia, the first step in the membership process.
With this sign of goodwill, the pro-Europe Democratic Party (DS) was able to take 103 out of 250 seats in the May 2008 elections to Serbia's Skupstina (national assembly), defeating the nationalist Serbian Radical Party (SRS). The new prime minister, Mirko Cvetkovic, heads a DS coalition with the Socialist Party and other small groups. Serbia's president, Boris Tadic, was re-elected in January 2008, defeating the nationalist former SRS leader, Tomislav Nikolic. Although the president's role is largely ceremonial, Tadic is also leader of the DS and represents a compromise position, opposing Kosovan independence whilst favouring European integration.
Although the conduct of elections has been praised by international observers, everyday life in Serbia is tainted by corruption of public officials, a culture which the more modern state is struggling to offload. Political and business elites are distrusted for the same reason. Anti-corruption initiatives have so far proved ineffective.
Civil society is strongly supported by both international and European agencies whose funds are directed primarily at organisational capacity building. There are concerns however that legislation governing the affairs of the non-profit sector is out of date, contributing to misunderstandings between government and NGOs.
Human Rights in Serbia
The pressure on the Serbian government to satisfy European demands was illustrated in July 2008 by the dramatic arrest of Radovan Karadzic. A significant stumbling block in European negotiations is the presumed presence in Serbian territory of such individuals, wanted for war crimes by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY). Whether or not the timing of the capture of Karadzic was coincidental, attention will now turn to former General Mladic, accused of comparable crimes. Countries such as the Netherlands are uncomfortable with Serbian efforts to fast track their membership application as long as Mladic is at large.
Extending the principle of accountability for war crimes from individuals to states lay behind an application to the International Court of Justice by the Bosnian government in 2007. If Serbia could be charged with the Srebrenica genocide, then a claim for reparations might be possible. However, whilst the Court ruled that Serbia could have done more to prevent the genocide, no case could be brought for direct accountability. Croatia has lodged a similar case against Serbia.
Concern for EU compliance lay behind many of the amendments to the Serbian constitution approved by referendum in October 2006. Although the headline amendment was concerned with claims over Kosovo, provisions were included for the rights of minorities and conduct of the judiciary. Within Serbia, police brutality, arbitrary arrest and torture allegations were rife in the Milosevic era but since then the country has had a very good track record. Active measures have been taken to achieve this, including extensive police reform.
|
| Kosovans in refugee centre © CARE USA |
Serbia is home to 300,000 refugees and internally displaced persons, more than any other country in Europe, and the government is struggling to provide housing and other basic rights. The majority fled from Kosovo in 1999 and less than 10% have been able to return. There is tension between the government’s willingness to assist returns (to strengthen the Serbian presence in Kosovo) and the reality that the refugees’ interests might be better served by integration.
The Economy in Serbia
Serbia lags behind the countries of Eastern Europe in the painful conversion from a centralised command economy to a neo-liberal market model. GDP fell by 50% between 1990 and 2000 and almost 2000 state-owned enterprises, involving over 300,000 employees, have been privatised in the years up to 2007. In the absence of any strong trade unions, most Serbians associate privatisation with catastrophic loss of jobs matched only by the corrupt enrichment of elite politicians and business directors. Undeterred, the government plans to privatise many of the remaining state entities, offering to distribute free shares in response to criticisms.
The situation in Kosovo is considerably worse with about half of the workforce unemployed. Aid and overseas remittances account for almost 40% of the economy which is paralysed by the territorial uncertainty. The per capita aid figure for Kosovo is one of the highest in the world. A tricky aspect of independence negotiations will be the share of Serbian government debt attributable to Kosovo as well as the distribution of power supplies which are largely sourced within Serbia.
Information and Media in Serbia
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