Poverty in Syria

Vital bread supplies in Syria © Abigail Fielding-Smith / IRIN News

Syria does not experience extreme poverty by the $1 per day measure associated with the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Less than 0.5% of the population falls below this threshold. Instead the government has adopted a poverty line defined as the cost of essential food and non-food items as its MDG benchmark with a target of 7.1% for 2015.

The most recent assessment published by UNDP in 2005 found that the percentage living below this poverty line had dropped only from 14.3% to 11.4% in the period 1997-2004. Economic growth since then is considered to have contributed more to widening inequality than poverty reduction and price increases in everyday goods have hit poor households particularly hard during 2008. The rate of poverty may therefore may be rising, casting doubts as to whether the MDG target will be achieved.

Although primary school enrolment is almost universal, the quality of schools is acknowledged to be in need of attention. Statistics are more favourable in the health sector where both child and maternal mortality rates fell in line with MDG expectations in the 1997-2004 period. Nevertheless, as with education, the lack of investment ensures that the majority of Syrians endure poor quality of health services, the middle classes often resorting to private prescriptions and treatment.

Food Security and Climate Change in Syria

Water shortage in Damascus © Hugh Macleod / United Nations' Integrated Regional Information Network

The 2008 launch of an emergency UN humanitarian appeal to assist one million poor farmers in the northeast provides further evidence that poverty remains a major stumbling block for the Syrian government. The trigger for the crisis was the worst drought for 40 years. Wheat production halved whilst the barley crop largely failed. Livestock farmers were especially affected, with about 100,000 losing their herds entirely. Agriculture normally contributes about 25% of GDP but in 2008 the government was forced to import wheat for the first time since the early 1990s.

Observers in Syria consider that the natural cycle of drought is increasing in frequency, a predicted impact of climate change. As with most countries in this region, water management is already stretched to its limits. The water table in Damascus has fallen from a depth of 50m to 200m in the last 20 years and households live with daily shutdowns of the supply. Beyond the cities, unsustainable agriculture and inappropriate land use is depleting groundwater resources. Encroaching desertification raises inevitable concerns about food production and the rural economy.
The Economy in Syria

Making ends meet in Syria © Julien Lennert / IRIN News

In a country where military spending is believed to exceed the budgets for health and education combined, progress in human development is likely to be constrained. Whilst formal strategy such as the 10th 5 year plan 2006-2010 affirms commitment to the MDGs in Syria, the general direction of economic policy contains ominous signs for lower income groups. There has been a gradual shift away from a centrally planned economy to a more modern open market system which receives glowing reports from the IMF. The country is also preparing the ground for an application to join the World Trade Organisation.

These reforms threaten the poor in two ways. Firstly, subsidies on everyday goods, which at $7 billion accounted for about 15% of GDP in 2008, are to be phased out by 2012. The government is clearly sensitive to the potential for public unrest but nevertheless introduced large increases in the price of fuel in December 2008.

Secondly, inefficient state-owned enterprises are likely to be tightened up or sold. The true rate of unemployment is difficult to assess but is believed to be rising, aggravated by a young population which adds 3%-4% to the workforce each year.

A further cloud on the economic horizon is the rapid depletion of Syria's oil revenues whose contribution to national income has fallen from 50% to less than 20% in the last 4-5 years. Reserves may be exhausted by 2012. The other key source of foreign exchange is remittances from Syrians living abroad. This diaspora may number as many as 15 million and the government has introduced a package of incentives to encourage skilled workers to return home.

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