Syria guide
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| © New Internationalist |
An authoritarian one-party state, the Syrian Arab Republic awards high priority to military resources and national security. Accurate data on living standards is difficult to obtain but a combination of severe drought and rising prices during 2008 may have reversed any poverty reduction achieved over the previous decade. Although social and economic tensions have been further aggravated by the influx of 1.2 million Iraqi refugees, the underlying welcome offered by the Syrian people represents to a notable humanitarian gesture.
updated December 2008
Poverty in Syria
Syria does not experience extreme poverty by the $1 per day measure associated with the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Less than 0.5% of the population falls below this threshold. Instead the government has adopted a poverty line defined as the cost of essential food and non-food items as its MDG benchmark with a target of 7.1% for 2015.
The most recent assessment published by UNDP in 2005 found that the percentage living below this poverty line had dropped only from 14.3% to 11.4% in the period 1997-2004. Economic growth since then is considered to have contributed more to widening inequality than poverty reduction and price increases in everyday goods have hit poor households particularly hard during 2008. The rate of poverty may therefore may be rising, casting doubts as to whether the MDG target will be achieved.
Although primary school enrolment is almost universal, the quality of schools is acknowledged to be in need of attention. Statistics are more favourable in the health sector where both child and maternal mortality rates fell in line with MDG expectations in the 1997-2004 period. Nevertheless, as with education, the lack of investment ensures that the majority of Syrians endure poor quality of health services, the middle classes often resorting to private prescriptions and treatment.
Food Security and Climate Change in Syria
The 2008 launch of an emergency UN humanitarian appeal to assist one million poor farmers in the northeast provides further evidence that poverty remains a major stumbling block for the Syrian government. The trigger for the crisis was the worst drought for 40 years. Wheat production halved whilst the barley crop largely failed. Livestock farmers were especially affected, with about 100,000 losing their herds entirely. Agriculture normally contributes about 25% of GDP but in 2008 the government was forced to import wheat for the first time since the early 1990s.
Observers in Syria consider that the natural cycle of drought is increasing in frequency, a predicted impact of climate change. As with most countries in this region, water management is already stretched to its limits. The water table in Damascus has fallen from a depth of 50m to 200m in the last 20 years and households live with daily shutdowns of the supply. Beyond the cities, unsustainable agriculture and inappropriate land use is depleting groundwater resources. Encroaching desertification raises inevitable concerns about food production and the rural economy.
The Economy in Syria
In a country where military spending is believed to exceed the budgets for health and education combined, progress in human development is likely to be constrained. Whilst formal strategy such as the 10th 5 year plan 2006-2010 affirms commitment to the MDGs in Syria, the general direction of economic policy contains ominous signs for lower income groups. There has been a gradual shift away from a centrally planned economy to a more modern open market system which receives glowing reports from the IMF. The country is also preparing the ground for an application to join the World Trade Organisation.
These reforms threaten the poor in two ways. Firstly, subsidies on everyday goods, which at $7 billion accounted for about 15% of GDP in 2008, are to be phased out by 2012. The government is clearly sensitive to the potential for public unrest but nevertheless introduced large increases in the price of fuel in December 2008.
Secondly, inefficient state-owned enterprises are likely to be tightened up or sold. The true rate of unemployment is difficult to assess but is believed to be rising, aggravated by a young population which adds 3%-4% to the workforce each year.
A further cloud on the economic horizon is the rapid depletion of Syria's oil revenues whose contribution to national income has fallen from 50% to less than 20% in the last 4-5 years. Reserves may be exhausted by 2012. The other key source of foreign exchange is remittances from Syrians living abroad. This diaspora may number as many as 15 million and the government has introduced a package of incentives to encourage skilled workers to return home.
Politics in Syria
Political reform has been contemplated rather less readily than economic liberalisation. The country lives in the shadow of Hafiz al-Asad, who was the country's president for over thirty years until his death in 2000. Al-Asad enforced authoritarian rule through networks of patronage, encouraging membership of the Syrian Ba'ath Party, and by expanding the public sector and the military.
The succession of Bashar al-Asad to the presidency after his father's death offered an unprecedented opportunity for the Syrian civil society movement to demand political reform. During the ensuing short period of relative openness in 2000, referred to as the "Damascus Spring", political prisoners were released and restrictions on the media and political dissent were eased. These reforms were, however, too much for the military, the Ba'ath Party and the elites, on whose support Bashar depended, and soon Syria's political scene reverted to its old authoritarian ways.
The parliamentary and presidential elections of 2007 serve to illustrate the system. 170 out of 250 seats in the Assembly of People are reserved for Ba'ath Party members; all candidates for election to the remaining seats are vetted and the winners tend to be rich businessmen with no interest in upsetting the government. This parliament has no autonomous legislative powers but instead debates bills presented by the government. Bashar was the sole candidate in the presidential election, known as a "referendum", which duly awarded him a further 7 year term of office.
The most important challenges to the secular Ba'ath regime have come from Islamic groups, such as the Muslim Brotherhood. Although the Brotherhood remains banned in Syria with its leader in exile, there has been a strong revival of the practice of Islamic faith.
Even though Syria is an authoritarian police state, which has been under a state of emergency for more than forty years, it can claim to have an active civil society with independent charitable and professional organisations, clubs and churches. However, legislation governing these groups permits government officials to intervene by taking board positions or attending meetings. Human Rights in Syria
Human rights organisations are however denied registration, including those fighting for women’s rights. An attempt in 2006 by the European Union to fund a walk-in centre for human rights advice foundered when it was peremptorily closed down with its leader, Anwar Bunni, subsequently sentenced to 5 years imprisonment.
Despite the one-sided nature of the 2007 elections, the authorities still took the precaution of arresting dissidents in the run-up to the voting. Hundreds of political prisoners are still detained for long periods without trial, or are condemned to serve sentences imposed after unfair trials. Such cases are covered by the state of emergency enforced by the Supreme State Security Court whose officials are appointed by the government separately from the mainstream criminal justice system.
Even though Syria joined the UN Convention Against Torture in August 2004, human rights groups believe that torture is routinely practised and that trials are concluded by reference to confessions obtained under torture. Concerns also focus on discrimination against minority Kurdish communities whose language is banned in schools and workplace despite making up 10% of the population. As many as 300,000 Kurds are believed to be "stateless" having no rights to public services or jobs.
Although Syria's constitution supposedly guarantees equality for both sexes, civil society points to the weakness of legislation relating to marriage. The most notorious abuses surround the crimes of domestic violence, rape and so-called "honour killings" which draw inadequate response from the police and judicial system.
Refugees in Syria
Attitudes towards Syria underwent rapid revision during 2007 as the Iraq refugee crisis unravelled and Syria became by far the most generous receiving country. By February the head of the UN Refugee Agency praised Syria for its open-handed welcome to the refugees, offering free education and health services, despite arrivals swelling at one stage to more than 2,000 every day. Then, as housing and essential services became overwhelmed, the Syrian government was forced to call a halt through visa restrictions. In the absence of any significant financial support from the US, the effective cost to the Syrians may exceed $1 billion pa.
The government has permitted 10 international NGOs to work with the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and the local Syrian Arab Red Crescent. The refugees have integrated into the existing urban infrastructure, as opposed to camps, which handicaps traditional methods of registration and provision. Towards the end of 2008, the total number of Iraqi refugees was estimated at 1.2 million of which 220,000 had registered for assistance. Conditions have worsened through 2008 and the agencies are short of funds. The World Food Programme is now supporting over 175,000 refugees.
The hardships experienced, combined with incentives offered by the government of Iraq, have persuaded numbers of the refugees to retrace their steps. However, UNHCR’s own assessment is not yet positive and there is evidence that very few refugees wish to return to Iraq.
Syria already hosts 400,000 Palestinian refugees dating back to the 1948 exodus from Palestine. Also integrated within the country are over 300,000 Syrians displaced from the Golan Heights during the 1967 Arab-Israel war. Whilst no humanitarian issues are involved in this displacement, the pain of separation from relatives remaining in the Golan territories annexed by Israel has not been resolved
Conflict in Syria
That Syria should take such a prominent role in smoothing over the disastrous consequences of the US-led invasion mocked the Bush Administration's refusal to view Syria as integral to a Middle East solution. Instead the US government has classified Syria as a state sponsor of terrorism for its relationships with Iran and with militant groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas. Also accused of nuclear ambitions and of meddling in Lebanon and Iraq, senior Syrian figures are subject to US sanctions.
Israel and the fate of the Palestinians have been Syria's dominant foreign policy concerns, especially since the catastrophic 1967 Arab-Israeli war in which Syria lost the Golan Heights. By its later acceptance of the UN Security Council Resolution 338, Syria for the first time formally accepted Israel's right to exist. Although a peace agreement has never been signed, both sides entered into tentative negotiations during 2008 under Turkish mediation. A potential solution might see the return of the Golan Heights to Syria in exchange for severance of relations with Hezbollah and Hamas. Such aspirations are however extremely sensitive to progress towards a settlement for Palestine.
Syria's military presence in Lebanon during and after that country’s civil war created the opportunity for deep political influence. This was severely disrupted in February 2005 by the assassination of the anti-Syrian former prime minister Rafik Hariri. Mass demonstrations in Lebanon, supported by international outrage, forced the withdrawal of Syrian troops and intensified Syria's diplomatic isolation. The subsequent UN inquiry has implicated senior officials from both Syria and Lebanon and a UN tribunal of investigation is scheduled to open in the Netherlands in March 2009. Having initially refused to recognise the tribunal, Syria is now reported to be cooperating.
Information and Media in Syria
Most Syrian media is either controlled or run by the state, with any private TV and radio stations not normally licensed to cover news. Journalists who do not exercise self-censorship may be forced into exile.
The new media and satellite revolution has hampered the extent to which the Syrian government is able to censor the information accessed or produced by its citizens. Nevertheless, Syria is described by Reporters Without Borders in its 2008 Press Freedom Index as "the Middle-East champion in cyber-repression".
The OneWorld Syria Guide was first published in February 2005 with a text written by Volunteer Editor Minna Lyytikäinen
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| Vital bread supplies in Syria © Abigail Fielding-Smith / IRIN News |
The most recent assessment published by UNDP in 2005 found that the percentage living below this poverty line had dropped only from 14.3% to 11.4% in the period 1997-2004. Economic growth since then is considered to have contributed more to widening inequality than poverty reduction and price increases in everyday goods have hit poor households particularly hard during 2008. The rate of poverty may therefore may be rising, casting doubts as to whether the MDG target will be achieved.
Although primary school enrolment is almost universal, the quality of schools is acknowledged to be in need of attention. Statistics are more favourable in the health sector where both child and maternal mortality rates fell in line with MDG expectations in the 1997-2004 period. Nevertheless, as with education, the lack of investment ensures that the majority of Syrians endure poor quality of health services, the middle classes often resorting to private prescriptions and treatment.
Food Security and Climate Change in Syria
|
| Water shortage in Damascus © Hugh Macleod / United Nations' Integrated Regional Information Network |
Observers in Syria consider that the natural cycle of drought is increasing in frequency, a predicted impact of climate change. As with most countries in this region, water management is already stretched to its limits. The water table in Damascus has fallen from a depth of 50m to 200m in the last 20 years and households live with daily shutdowns of the supply. Beyond the cities, unsustainable agriculture and inappropriate land use is depleting groundwater resources. Encroaching desertification raises inevitable concerns about food production and the rural economy.
The Economy in Syria
|
| Making ends meet in Syria © Julien Lennert / IRIN News |
These reforms threaten the poor in two ways. Firstly, subsidies on everyday goods, which at $7 billion accounted for about 15% of GDP in 2008, are to be phased out by 2012. The government is clearly sensitive to the potential for public unrest but nevertheless introduced large increases in the price of fuel in December 2008.
Secondly, inefficient state-owned enterprises are likely to be tightened up or sold. The true rate of unemployment is difficult to assess but is believed to be rising, aggravated by a young population which adds 3%-4% to the workforce each year.
A further cloud on the economic horizon is the rapid depletion of Syria's oil revenues whose contribution to national income has fallen from 50% to less than 20% in the last 4-5 years. Reserves may be exhausted by 2012. The other key source of foreign exchange is remittances from Syrians living abroad. This diaspora may number as many as 15 million and the government has introduced a package of incentives to encourage skilled workers to return home.
Politics in Syria
Political reform has been contemplated rather less readily than economic liberalisation. The country lives in the shadow of Hafiz al-Asad, who was the country's president for over thirty years until his death in 2000. Al-Asad enforced authoritarian rule through networks of patronage, encouraging membership of the Syrian Ba'ath Party, and by expanding the public sector and the military.
The succession of Bashar al-Asad to the presidency after his father's death offered an unprecedented opportunity for the Syrian civil society movement to demand political reform. During the ensuing short period of relative openness in 2000, referred to as the "Damascus Spring", political prisoners were released and restrictions on the media and political dissent were eased. These reforms were, however, too much for the military, the Ba'ath Party and the elites, on whose support Bashar depended, and soon Syria's political scene reverted to its old authoritarian ways.
The parliamentary and presidential elections of 2007 serve to illustrate the system. 170 out of 250 seats in the Assembly of People are reserved for Ba'ath Party members; all candidates for election to the remaining seats are vetted and the winners tend to be rich businessmen with no interest in upsetting the government. This parliament has no autonomous legislative powers but instead debates bills presented by the government. Bashar was the sole candidate in the presidential election, known as a "referendum", which duly awarded him a further 7 year term of office.
The most important challenges to the secular Ba'ath regime have come from Islamic groups, such as the Muslim Brotherhood. Although the Brotherhood remains banned in Syria with its leader in exile, there has been a strong revival of the practice of Islamic faith.
Even though Syria is an authoritarian police state, which has been under a state of emergency for more than forty years, it can claim to have an active civil society with independent charitable and professional organisations, clubs and churches. However, legislation governing these groups permits government officials to intervene by taking board positions or attending meetings. Human Rights in Syria
|
| Islamic faith in secular Syria © Hugh Macleod / United Nations' Integrated Regional Information Network |
Despite the one-sided nature of the 2007 elections, the authorities still took the precaution of arresting dissidents in the run-up to the voting. Hundreds of political prisoners are still detained for long periods without trial, or are condemned to serve sentences imposed after unfair trials. Such cases are covered by the state of emergency enforced by the Supreme State Security Court whose officials are appointed by the government separately from the mainstream criminal justice system.
Even though Syria joined the UN Convention Against Torture in August 2004, human rights groups believe that torture is routinely practised and that trials are concluded by reference to confessions obtained under torture. Concerns also focus on discrimination against minority Kurdish communities whose language is banned in schools and workplace despite making up 10% of the population. As many as 300,000 Kurds are believed to be "stateless" having no rights to public services or jobs.
Although Syria's constitution supposedly guarantees equality for both sexes, civil society points to the weakness of legislation relating to marriage. The most notorious abuses surround the crimes of domestic violence, rape and so-called "honour killings" which draw inadequate response from the police and judicial system.
Refugees in Syria
|
| Iraqi refugees in Syria © United Nations' Integrated Regional Information Network |
The government has permitted 10 international NGOs to work with the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and the local Syrian Arab Red Crescent. The refugees have integrated into the existing urban infrastructure, as opposed to camps, which handicaps traditional methods of registration and provision. Towards the end of 2008, the total number of Iraqi refugees was estimated at 1.2 million of which 220,000 had registered for assistance. Conditions have worsened through 2008 and the agencies are short of funds. The World Food Programme is now supporting over 175,000 refugees.
The hardships experienced, combined with incentives offered by the government of Iraq, have persuaded numbers of the refugees to retrace their steps. However, UNHCR’s own assessment is not yet positive and there is evidence that very few refugees wish to return to Iraq.
Syria already hosts 400,000 Palestinian refugees dating back to the 1948 exodus from Palestine. Also integrated within the country are over 300,000 Syrians displaced from the Golan Heights during the 1967 Arab-Israel war. Whilst no humanitarian issues are involved in this displacement, the pain of separation from relatives remaining in the Golan territories annexed by Israel has not been resolved
Conflict in Syria
That Syria should take such a prominent role in smoothing over the disastrous consequences of the US-led invasion mocked the Bush Administration's refusal to view Syria as integral to a Middle East solution. Instead the US government has classified Syria as a state sponsor of terrorism for its relationships with Iran and with militant groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas. Also accused of nuclear ambitions and of meddling in Lebanon and Iraq, senior Syrian figures are subject to US sanctions.
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| Dummy soldier in a Golan Heights redoubt. © David Poe / Policy Innovations |
Syria's military presence in Lebanon during and after that country’s civil war created the opportunity for deep political influence. This was severely disrupted in February 2005 by the assassination of the anti-Syrian former prime minister Rafik Hariri. Mass demonstrations in Lebanon, supported by international outrage, forced the withdrawal of Syrian troops and intensified Syria's diplomatic isolation. The subsequent UN inquiry has implicated senior officials from both Syria and Lebanon and a UN tribunal of investigation is scheduled to open in the Netherlands in March 2009. Having initially refused to recognise the tribunal, Syria is now reported to be cooperating.
Information and Media in Syria
Most Syrian media is either controlled or run by the state, with any private TV and radio stations not normally licensed to cover news. Journalists who do not exercise self-censorship may be forced into exile.
The new media and satellite revolution has hampered the extent to which the Syrian government is able to censor the information accessed or produced by its citizens. Nevertheless, Syria is described by Reporters Without Borders in its 2008 Press Freedom Index as "the Middle-East champion in cyber-repression".
The OneWorld Syria Guide was first published in February 2005 with a text written by Volunteer Editor Minna Lyytikäinen
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