Tajikistan guide
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| © New Internationalist |
Tajikistan is judged to be particularly vulnerable to the global economic recession, compounding the setbacks of a year of natural disasters in 2008. International donors harbour serious concerns for human development in a country which is already the poorest of the former Soviet republics. For President Rahmon, anxiety will focus more on any signs that tolerance of the long-suffering Tajik population for his ineffective governance is about to fracture.
updated March 2009
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| Cattle herding, Tajikistan © Paulita Sedgwick |
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| Somoni Statue in Dushanbe © Chidi Ugonna |
Health
Food Security
Climate Change
Conflict
Politics
Economy
Human Rights and Media
Poverty in Tajikistan
The disintegration of the Soviet Union prompted a collapse in the economy in Tajikistan which was exaggerated further by a civil war between 1992 and 1997. The year 1999 has therefore been adopted as the baseline for the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), at which point 83% of the population was assessed to be living below the country's poverty line - defined in Tajikistan as the purchasing power of $2.15 per day. By 2007, successive years of relative economic stability had reduced the poverty rate to 53%.
Subsequent events, however, have almost certainly reversed some of the progress. The International Crisis Group (ICG) suggests that poverty has risen to 70% with “hunger spreading to the cities”. The World Bank says that Tajikistan is the “only country in the Europe and Central Asia region unlikely to achieve most of its Millennium Development Goals.”
A needs assessment conducted in 2005 by government working groups in collaboration with UN agencies produced an overview of the structural reforms and resources required if Tajikistan is to meet the MDGs by 2015. Even on optimistic economic assumptions, the projected funding gap over this period was of the order of $2 billion, far beyond prospective aid and development resources. For example, the targets for education require the construction of hundreds of new schools alongside very substantial increases in teachers' pay.
Health in Tajikistan
Health also needs massive investment to meet the MDGs. The Tajikistan health system is closely related to the Soviet model which placed great emphasis on central planning and hierarchical management. The long drawn-out civil war triggered a mass emigration of talented physicians and crippled the infrastructure of the system. The quality of medical training in the country is poor, with allegations that students can buy medical degrees without completing the full course. Government spending on health in 2005 was only 1.5% of GDP.
Russian patronage before 1991 provided a generous supply of health care facilities but now in most cases these are dysfunctional entities lacking in qualified staff and in basic medical resources. Patients often have to pay "out of pocket" to supplement the inadequate wages of doctors and nurses - a financial burden which most patients can ill afford and which is prone to abuse.
Food Security in Tajikistan
A landlocked country dominated by mountainous terrain where less than 20% of the land is suitable for cultivation is inevitably vulnerable to food insecurity. Until recently Tajikistan has been equal to the challenge but a combination of mismanagement and misfortune culminated in two emergency UN appeals for aid during 2008.
The year brought a sequence of natural disasters – the coldest winter for over 40 years which brought the economy to its knees, followed by exceptionally high summer temperatures which caused a 40% drop in the grain harvest. Then towards the end of summer a locust infestation proved beyond the capacity of government to subdue. This same period also brought the impact of rising global food prices which created hardship for the poorest families already spending about 70% of their incomes on food.
Greater national strategic resolve in agriculture could nevertheless have strengthened resistance to these extreme events. The dominant cotton industry has been allowed disproportionate access to inputs, especially water, which might have been better deployed for food crops. Inefficient state ownership of farmland prompted the government to embark on land reform intended to enable private ownership and greater investment. This has not yet generated the intended enterprise as the deep culture of interference by public officials proves hard to shift.
Irrigation structures remain in desperate need of restoration and the country is forced to import an increasingly sizeable share of its food needs. Oxfam International believes that “one third of the rural population is now food insecure (at least 1.7 million people).”
Climate Change in Tajikistan
The crisis of the cold winter of 2008 may rapidly become an ironic footnote to the more fundamental threat of climate change to the glaciers of Tajikistan. Glacier melt contributes up to 20% of the run-off to local rivers which in turn are critical to Tajikistan's hydropower, agriculture (the major crop - cotton - is particularly dependent on irrigation), and provision of safe drinking water. The major glaciers are reported to be retreating by about 20 metres each year and the implications for integrated water management are uncertain. The MDG to provide 74% of rural Tajikistan with safe drinking water is regarded as unlikely to be achieved without very significant investment. Hopes that untapped hydropower could bring relief to rural households accustomed to electricity for about 2 hours per day may founder on the unpredictable impact of climate change.
Unfortunately, conservation of depleted water resources is already an area of concern along the international boundaries of Central Asia where competition for scarce irrigation canal water can result in ethnic conflict between groups. The sensitive ecology of freshwater does not recognise national boundaries and there is an urgent need for Central Asian countries to work together to manage the fallout from global warming. More than half of the water on which these countries depend is believed to be sourced in Tajikistan.
Conflict in Tajikistan
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the incumbent government in Tajikistan was ineffectual in handling the tinderbox situation of inter-ethnic distrust. A bloody and crippling civil war resulted, in which 50,000 lives were lost. United Nations efforts alongside Russian, Afghan, and Iranian diplomatic support enabled a rapprochement in 1997 between the warring factions.
Tajikistan has to contend with the removal of landmines and cluster bombs, a deadly legacy of the civil war. Due to lack of funding the de-mining programme coordinated by the Tajikistan Mine Action Centre (TMAC) may struggle to achieve its target of clearing all mines by 2010. According to TMAC, over 300 people have been killed by landmines since 1992.
The border with Afghanistan is a major smuggling route for opium and heroin to Russia and the West, a lucrative trade that could be a source of instability for Tajikistan and which ensures that the country is not forgotten by the major powers. Repeated efforts to secure the withdrawal of Russian troops patrolling these borders were countered by fears that this would lead to a glut of drug smuggling. However, to the surprise of many, the replacement of Russian border guards with Tajik troops was completed in 2006.
Politics in Tajikistan
A peace treaty signed in 1997 decreed that Tajikistan should be a democratic secular state whilst permitting an overtly Islamist opposition party, the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRP) to play a role in parliament. The leader of the ruling People's Democratic Party, Emomali Rahmon, remains the current president of Tajikistan.
Unlike many of its Central Asian neighbours, Tajikistan has enjoyed considerable security since 1997, a rare example of a country in this region in which the Islamic opposition has chosen to work harmoniously within the secular government system without becoming radicalized. Public fear of a return to the violence of the 1990s and the perception of Rahmon as the critical figure in bringing about the peace have combined to sustain the president in power. Any shortcomings in democracy or personal freedoms have not as yet created the upheavals experienced in neighbouring Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Rahmon has exploited this desire for stability by amending the constitution to permit two additional seven-year terms which could prolong his rule until 2020.
Parliamentary elections conducted in February 2005 followed by a presidential vote in November 2006 have duly returned massive victories for Rahmon and his party. The main opposition parties, the IRP and the Communist Party of Tajikistan, were entitled to feel aggrieved about the pre-election shenanigans which stacked the odds in favour of the president's party in 2005. Both elections were ruled as not free and fair by observers from The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. Rahmon did not bother to campaign nor to present his policies.
Although civil society is striving to draw attention to injustice, new regulations in 2007 to monitor public associations dictate that every NGO must undergo re-registration, a device increasingly adopted in the region to clamp down on any exposure of government malpractice. There is however one aspect of Tajik society that cannot be manipulated by Rahmon‘s tentacles of power. Demographics dictate that 67.5% of the population is under age 29, too young to counterpoint experiences of the civil war with contemporary hardship. In early 2009, ICG warned of potential social unrest as the compact with totalitarian government unravels. Rumours of feuding within the presidential circle add to the sense of looming upheaval.
The Economy in Tajikistan
Evidence of dysfunctional government has been fuelled by financial scandals exposed during 2008. The IMF was forced to claw back almost $50 million of loan finance when it discovered that false data about government reserves had been submitted. A corruption case involving operations at the state aluminium smelter company, Talco, was settled in secrecy only after legal fees incurred by the Tajik government mounted up to a significant percentage of national income.
With the principal levers of economic power controlled by an unaccountable narrow elite linked to the president, it is inevitable that corruption will flourish, draining the national economy. Tajikistan is rated by Transparency International as one of the worst offenders in the world. The ICG report discouraged donors from channelling aid through government departments. Despite the president's protestations to the contrary, bribery is an unavoidable part of everyday life and equally ingrained at institutional level.
Tajikistan is the remittance capital of the world. Almost half of the workforce found employment in “dirty” jobs in Russia during 2008, sending $2 billion to their families, about one half of GDP. This dependence may rebound dramatically in 2009; the Russian economy is in free fall and permits to guest workers may be denied, even if work is available. Tajikistan has no capacity to substitute for these livelihoods. External debt doubled to $1.2 billion in the period 2005-2007, prompting a formal classification of the country as “debt distressed”. Falling world prices for cotton and aluminium complete a sorry outlook for the economy.
Human Rights and Media in Tajikistan
Since the 2006 election, President Rahmon has been testing the tolerance threshold of his citizens with a series of unconventional measures. These began with the elision of his former name from its more Russian equivalent of Rahmonov, marking a directive for others to follow suit when registering births of children. Students have been ordered to be less casual in their dress, schools are to buy history books written by the president, and Soviet era statues are disappearing.
The main religions in Tajikistan are Sunni Islam (85%) and Shia Islam (5%). Apparently anxious to protect the secular principles of the state, Rahmon has introduced draft legislation to restrict the number of mosques available for worship. With many religious denominations already banned and no Islamic political parties allowed beyond the IRP, human rights observers suggest that anti-terrorist measures are too easily being adapted in Tajikistan to suppress political opposition.
A related concern to most Tajiks is the state of the justice system. There are prisoners languishing in brutal and dispiriting conditions for crimes which they have not committed or serving sentences that are very disproportionate to the alleged crimes. A visit from the UN Committee Against Torture in 2006 made recommendations for new legislation to make torture a crime and to prohibit the admissibility of evidence obtained under torture. The government has not responded. A more positive development in human rights law in Tajikistan was the abolition of the death penalty in February 2005.
The Press used to be wholly government owned but a number of private and NGO publications are now available as well as private radio and TV stations. Prior to the elections in February 2005, the printing presses of three opposition papers were shut down for tax-evasion reasons and in the run-up to the 2006 presidential election it was the turn of five websites to be blocked. Harrassment of independent media sources has continued and new laws are in place to impose prison sentences for libel in print or online.
The OneWorld Tajikistan Guide was first published in September 2004 with a text written by Volunteer Editor Chidi Ugonna.
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| Wakhan Corridor, Tajikistan © Chidi Ugonna |
Subsequent events, however, have almost certainly reversed some of the progress. The International Crisis Group (ICG) suggests that poverty has risen to 70% with “hunger spreading to the cities”. The World Bank says that Tajikistan is the “only country in the Europe and Central Asia region unlikely to achieve most of its Millennium Development Goals.”
A needs assessment conducted in 2005 by government working groups in collaboration with UN agencies produced an overview of the structural reforms and resources required if Tajikistan is to meet the MDGs by 2015. Even on optimistic economic assumptions, the projected funding gap over this period was of the order of $2 billion, far beyond prospective aid and development resources. For example, the targets for education require the construction of hundreds of new schools alongside very substantial increases in teachers' pay.
Health in Tajikistan
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| Ishkashim girl, Tajikistan © Chidi Ugonna |
Russian patronage before 1991 provided a generous supply of health care facilities but now in most cases these are dysfunctional entities lacking in qualified staff and in basic medical resources. Patients often have to pay "out of pocket" to supplement the inadequate wages of doctors and nurses - a financial burden which most patients can ill afford and which is prone to abuse.
Food Security in Tajikistan
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| Milk yurt, Tajikistan © Chidi Ugonna |
The year brought a sequence of natural disasters – the coldest winter for over 40 years which brought the economy to its knees, followed by exceptionally high summer temperatures which caused a 40% drop in the grain harvest. Then towards the end of summer a locust infestation proved beyond the capacity of government to subdue. This same period also brought the impact of rising global food prices which created hardship for the poorest families already spending about 70% of their incomes on food.
Greater national strategic resolve in agriculture could nevertheless have strengthened resistance to these extreme events. The dominant cotton industry has been allowed disproportionate access to inputs, especially water, which might have been better deployed for food crops. Inefficient state ownership of farmland prompted the government to embark on land reform intended to enable private ownership and greater investment. This has not yet generated the intended enterprise as the deep culture of interference by public officials proves hard to shift.
Irrigation structures remain in desperate need of restoration and the country is forced to import an increasingly sizeable share of its food needs. Oxfam International believes that “one third of the rural population is now food insecure (at least 1.7 million people).”
Climate Change in Tajikistan
|
| Aggravating desertification in Tajikistan © Paulita Sedgwick |
Unfortunately, conservation of depleted water resources is already an area of concern along the international boundaries of Central Asia where competition for scarce irrigation canal water can result in ethnic conflict between groups. The sensitive ecology of freshwater does not recognise national boundaries and there is an urgent need for Central Asian countries to work together to manage the fallout from global warming. More than half of the water on which these countries depend is believed to be sourced in Tajikistan.
Conflict in Tajikistan
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the incumbent government in Tajikistan was ineffectual in handling the tinderbox situation of inter-ethnic distrust. A bloody and crippling civil war resulted, in which 50,000 lives were lost. United Nations efforts alongside Russian, Afghan, and Iranian diplomatic support enabled a rapprochement in 1997 between the warring factions.
Tajikistan has to contend with the removal of landmines and cluster bombs, a deadly legacy of the civil war. Due to lack of funding the de-mining programme coordinated by the Tajikistan Mine Action Centre (TMAC) may struggle to achieve its target of clearing all mines by 2010. According to TMAC, over 300 people have been killed by landmines since 1992.
The border with Afghanistan is a major smuggling route for opium and heroin to Russia and the West, a lucrative trade that could be a source of instability for Tajikistan and which ensures that the country is not forgotten by the major powers. Repeated efforts to secure the withdrawal of Russian troops patrolling these borders were countered by fears that this would lead to a glut of drug smuggling. However, to the surprise of many, the replacement of Russian border guards with Tajik troops was completed in 2006.
Politics in Tajikistan
A peace treaty signed in 1997 decreed that Tajikistan should be a democratic secular state whilst permitting an overtly Islamist opposition party, the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRP) to play a role in parliament. The leader of the ruling People's Democratic Party, Emomali Rahmon, remains the current president of Tajikistan.
|
| Dushanbe Winter © Chidi Ugonna |
Parliamentary elections conducted in February 2005 followed by a presidential vote in November 2006 have duly returned massive victories for Rahmon and his party. The main opposition parties, the IRP and the Communist Party of Tajikistan, were entitled to feel aggrieved about the pre-election shenanigans which stacked the odds in favour of the president's party in 2005. Both elections were ruled as not free and fair by observers from The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. Rahmon did not bother to campaign nor to present his policies.
Although civil society is striving to draw attention to injustice, new regulations in 2007 to monitor public associations dictate that every NGO must undergo re-registration, a device increasingly adopted in the region to clamp down on any exposure of government malpractice. There is however one aspect of Tajik society that cannot be manipulated by Rahmon‘s tentacles of power. Demographics dictate that 67.5% of the population is under age 29, too young to counterpoint experiences of the civil war with contemporary hardship. In early 2009, ICG warned of potential social unrest as the compact with totalitarian government unravels. Rumours of feuding within the presidential circle add to the sense of looming upheaval.
The Economy in Tajikistan
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| Tourism in Murghab, Tajikistan © Kate Straub |
With the principal levers of economic power controlled by an unaccountable narrow elite linked to the president, it is inevitable that corruption will flourish, draining the national economy. Tajikistan is rated by Transparency International as one of the worst offenders in the world. The ICG report discouraged donors from channelling aid through government departments. Despite the president's protestations to the contrary, bribery is an unavoidable part of everyday life and equally ingrained at institutional level.
Tajikistan is the remittance capital of the world. Almost half of the workforce found employment in “dirty” jobs in Russia during 2008, sending $2 billion to their families, about one half of GDP. This dependence may rebound dramatically in 2009; the Russian economy is in free fall and permits to guest workers may be denied, even if work is available. Tajikistan has no capacity to substitute for these livelihoods. External debt doubled to $1.2 billion in the period 2005-2007, prompting a formal classification of the country as “debt distressed”. Falling world prices for cotton and aluminium complete a sorry outlook for the economy.
Human Rights and Media in Tajikistan
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| Badakhshani Wedding, Tajikistan © Chidi Ugonna |
The main religions in Tajikistan are Sunni Islam (85%) and Shia Islam (5%). Apparently anxious to protect the secular principles of the state, Rahmon has introduced draft legislation to restrict the number of mosques available for worship. With many religious denominations already banned and no Islamic political parties allowed beyond the IRP, human rights observers suggest that anti-terrorist measures are too easily being adapted in Tajikistan to suppress political opposition.
A related concern to most Tajiks is the state of the justice system. There are prisoners languishing in brutal and dispiriting conditions for crimes which they have not committed or serving sentences that are very disproportionate to the alleged crimes. A visit from the UN Committee Against Torture in 2006 made recommendations for new legislation to make torture a crime and to prohibit the admissibility of evidence obtained under torture. The government has not responded. A more positive development in human rights law in Tajikistan was the abolition of the death penalty in February 2005.
The Press used to be wholly government owned but a number of private and NGO publications are now available as well as private radio and TV stations. Prior to the elections in February 2005, the printing presses of three opposition papers were shut down for tax-evasion reasons and in the run-up to the 2006 presidential election it was the turn of five websites to be blocked. Harrassment of independent media sources has continued and new laws are in place to impose prison sentences for libel in print or online.
The OneWorld Tajikistan Guide was first published in September 2004 with a text written by Volunteer Editor Chidi Ugonna.
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