Poverty Reduction

There is no hard data available for the current incidence of poverty in Zambia. Until results of the Living Conditions Monitoring Survey conducted in early 2010 are published, any figures quoted are almost certainly derived from an earlier 2006 survey.

Preparing food in Zambia © Nebert Mulenga / IRIN News

At that time, Zambia was grappling with chronic poverty and hunger. Even by its most stringent measure - the cost of basic food requirements - the rate of extreme poverty had decreased only from 58% to 51% of the population in the period 1991-2006.

Opinion is divided as to whether the eventful years since 2006 have steered Zambia towards the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) for extreme poverty - the target is 29% by 2015.

An optimistic view points to the high price of copper, booming tourism and bumper maize harvests which have combined to deliver macro-economic annual growth of around 6% for the last five years. During 2011, Zambia graduated to the lower tier of the World Bank’s middle income classification.

A more cautious perspective is fearful that Zambia’s impressive headline performance may have benefited only the wealthy city elites. In a telling remark, a high level European donor visit in June 2011 warned that “(the 2010 survey figures) most probably would show that poverty has not come down as expected since 2006.”

International donors contributed $918 million to Zambian programmes in 2009 but relationships are somewhat strained. Corruption scandals in the Ministry of Health provoked suspension of aid by The Global Fund to Fight AIDS during 2010 and two European governments are withholding direct budget support for 2011.

A key US donor, the Millennium Challenge Corporation, published a hard-hitting analysis of Zambia’s economic bottlenecks in 2011. It blamed the continued high rate of poverty on inadequate education, poor health standards, unproductive agriculture and dysfunctional infrastructure.

The government has responded with Zambia’s Sixth National Development Plan. Covering the period 2011-2015, the SNDP promises to focus on its theme of “sustained economic growth and poverty reduction.”
Food Security

Progress
Zambia has dramatically bucked the trend of severe food insecurity in East Africa. The country’s silos are groaning with surplus maize whilst food prices in local markets are stable (as at September 2011).

Selling cassava in Zambia © Nebert Mulenga / IRIN News

The staple maize crop has enjoyed three successive bumper harvests to 2011, each better than the last. The government has channelled most of its agriculture budget into the Farmer Input Support Programme which provides fertiliser subsidies for half of Zambia’s estimated one million small farmers. In addition the state guarantees to purchase surplus grain at a generous price.

A cautionary note has been sounded by the Zambia Food Security Research Project, working in partnership with the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives. Its research concludes that favourable rainfall has accounted for 61% of the rise in yields, almost double the contribution of extra fertiliser. Aware that only 1% of arable land is irrigated, the report warns: “the country remains vulnerable to shifts in weather conditions.”

A study by the US-based International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has also noted that volatile climate is the norm. "There is a high chance that at least one agroecological zone experienced an abnormal weather event in any given year,” concludes the research.

This partly explains why, even in the recent years of benign climate and state support, about 20% of planted land failed to mature to harvest quality. About 80% of the country’s poverty and hunger is located on small subsistence farms of less than one hectare, the asset profile of a quarter of Zambia’s farmers.

The World Food Programme therefore remains active in Zambia, seeking to support over one million children in school-feeding programmes in 2011.

The intuitive solution of moving food from areas of surplus is impeded by poor infrastructure. Roads and storage facilities have been extended little since colonial times. The immaturity of local markets is also the reason why farmers with surplus produce depend on sales to the national Food Reserve Agency.

Up to a point this fulfils the food security strategy of maintaining national reserves. But successive record harvests have left the government with excess stocks. Storage facilities will be sorely tried, as is the budget which may have overspent by about $150 million in 2011.

Solutions
Although no up to date statistics are available, there is consensus that investment in Zambia’s rural economy is the optimum path to achieving the MDG relating to hunger.

School feeding in Maaba District, Zambia © Manoocher Deghati / IRIN News

However, the major US and European donors are uneasy with the current government spending priority for subsidies. They view the strategy as unsustainable on grounds of both cost and its lack of resilience against variable rainfall.

The donors would prefer to see more spending on the rural infrastructure with the aim of establishing vibrant local and regional markets. Smallholders would also be encouraged to diversify into livestock and to develop non-farm livelihoods.

The government could also anticipate donor support for scaling up its existing pilot programmes for direct cash transfers to the poorest households.

A separate branch of food security strategy is likely to focus on expanding the area of planted land. Although almost half of Zambia’s land is fertile, less than 15% of this potential is actually cultivated.

Difficult land reform will be required to unleash this opportunity. Over 90% of land in Zambia is classed as customary tenure, divided between more than 70 tribes whose chiefs determine its allocation for farming. The state retains ownership in law.

This lack of secure tenure represents an obstacle to both sustainable husbandry and access to credit for farm improvements or expansion. Amendments to the constitution proposed by the last government sought to improve some aspects of land rights, especially relating to women. But parliament rejected the amendments in 2011.

Two major uncertainties hang over the future policy for securing the best interests of poor farmers. Should the state persuade tribal chiefs to cede their customary rights so that conventional legal tenure can be granted? Should any newly accessible land be made available to voracious foreign buyers currently scouring Africa for investment opportunities?

The outgoing government had little hesitation on the question of foreign investment. Its Minister of Agriculture described Zambia as the ideal place for land investment with “over 30 million hectares of land that is begging to be utilised.”
Climate Change

Effects of Climate Change
The mean annual temperature in Zambia has increased by 1.3° since 1960, a rate of change which is confidently projected to continue. This has the effect of increasing the frequency of days and nights which are particularly warm, a trend which constrains crop yields in tropical latitudes.

Flooding in Lusaka © Nebert Mulenga / IRIN News

A second important impact of rising temperatures is the higher altitude at which the risk of malaria transmission becomes significant. This is important in Zambia, a country which has many settlements located at marginal altitudes.

The implication of higher temperatures for rainfall is more difficult to predict, especially as Zambia is affected by the periodic El Nino phenomenon, a complexity beyond the scope of current climate models.

Nevertheless, the government's National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA), published in 2007, reports that "drought and floods have increased in frequency, intensity and magnitude over the last two decades." The more recent IFPRI Zambia study offers endorsement in stating that “drought events have grown more frequent over time.”

As well as the impact on agriculture, any instability of the water cycle has the potential to disrupt other key sectors of the economy. Zambia’s electricity supply is almost totally dependent on hydropower. And 30% of Zambia’s land is reserved for wildlife, a habitat whose stability is vital to preserve tourism revenues.

It is not inconceivable that any lessening of the spectacle of the Victoria Falls could become a symbol of the global injustice of climate change. The impact on Zambia’s economy is already disproportionate to the country’s miniscule contribution to global carbon dioxide emissions.


Zambia Climate Change – the impacts of drought, flood and rising temperature, from UNDP

Adaptation
However aggrieved by the injustice of climate change, Zambia has no choice but to adapt. It is poorly placed to do so, given the extent of poverty and the lack of understanding of the anthropogenic component of the country's variable weather.

In common with other Least Developed Countries, Zambia has gained little support from international donors for its NAPA recommendations, with only one of the priority projects funded so far.

The general thrust of a response to global warming in Zambia will be to intensify activities which are in any event appropriate to poverty reduction and food security in the face of climate variability.

For example, farmers will be encouraged to diversify from their over-dependence on maize, a crop which performs poorly in dry and hot conditions. Indigenous crops such as cassava and millet are more resilient. Skills in conservation agriculture will be relevant to regenerating soil and water resources.

Improving the regional and local services of the Zambia Meteorological Department will be vital for the rural economy. The broader institutional development necessary to deliver a strategic response to climate change has been slow moving.

The Sixth National Development Plan promises to mainstream climate change and disaster risk management through all government departments. A Climate Change Facilitation Unit was set up in 2009 for this purpose. But there is little sign of action.

A detailed National Climate Change Response Strategy was prepared by consultants towards the end of 2010 but appears not to have been awarded government approval. It recommends sweeping reorganisation of ministry responsibilities, having reached the conclusion that “there is no single institution which has a clear mandate on coordinating climate change activities in the country.”

This draft strategy nevertheless has value as a searching examination of the climate challenge that Zambia is forced to contemplate. The massive price tag of $6.6 billion over 20 years puts a new complexion on the $110 million of climate resilience funding for Zambia announced by the multilateral Climate Investment Funds in 2011. This had been regarded as one of the most generous climate change programmes in Africa.


Vincent Ziba of WWF in Zambia discusses the impact of climate change in Zambia and the challenge of assisting rural communities to adapt, from OneWorld TV.
Deforestation

Deforestation is a key agent in the linkages between poverty reduction, food security and climate change in Zambia. Largely without electricity, both rural and urban households have no choice but to depend on woodfuel and charcoal. These sources degrade forest cover and account for at least 70% of the country’s consumption of energy.

“Slash and burn” agriculture, known as chitemene, also takes its toll on the forests. And markets for timber flourish, undeterred by their illegal status.

Streams dried up in Zambia © Nebert Mulenga / IRIN News

The 2008 MDG Progress Report warns that “the removal of forest and woodland cover in many areas in the country is leading to the shortened flow of seasonal streams and the drying up of formerly permanent rivers.”

A 1999 law designed to improve forest governance has not been implemented and local enforcement of regulations by tribal chiefs is lax. Over 250,000 hectares of forest are lost each year, about 0.5% of total cover. No primary forest remains.

This unsustainable picture is potentially transformed by Zambia’s participation in UN pilot programmes for the proposed global scheme for “reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation” (REDD). A successful 3-year implementation of the $4.5 million National UN-REDD Programme starting in 2010 could lead to significant long term compensation for protecting forest cover.

However, the conditions for REDD payments require nothing short of a radical overhaul in attitudes towards the natural environment at every level, from government ministry to peasant farmer. The need for land reform in Zambia will be reinforced as farming communities have little incentive to protect trees without a sense of ownership and a stake in the REDD proceeds.

Households themselves must be persuaded to consume energy more efficiently and to diversify livelihoods into non-timber forest products. The government will have to demonstrate institutional capacity for effective policy and legislation. Already, staff shortages in the Forestry Department are contributing to delays in reform, according to the MDG Progress Report for 2011.


A pilot REDD programme in Zambia, from the Peace Parks Foundation.
Electricity Access

According to the 2006 Living Conditions Survey, 49% of urban residents had access to electricity whilst coverage in rural areas was limited to 3%. These figures are unlikely to have changed significantly; indeed, an assessment by the Millennium Challenge Corporation considers that coverage has fallen since the 1990s.

Hydropower has the potential to deliver four times the current installed capacity in Zambia. To support the existing Kariba dam facility, major plans are in the pipeline, notably the Kafue Gorge Lower development. China’s increasingly close engagement in Zambian development embraces the provision of massive loans for energy projects.

There are bound to be concerns that any new power supplies may be swallowed up by demand from the expanding mining sector, in which China is again heavily involved.

The 2011 budget included an allocation for rural electrification amounting to 1.5% of total government spending. The target is to increase coverage to 15% by 2015, largely with mini-hydro projects.